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Corn Harvest Quality Report 2019/2020

Contents

  1. Export Cargo Quality Highlights
  2. Introduction
  3. Grade Factors
  4. Quality Test Results
  5. Moisture
  6. Chemical Composition
  7. Physical Factors
  8. Stress Cracks
  9. 100- Kernel Weight
  10. Kernel Volume
  11. Kernel True Density
  12. Whole Kernels
  13. Horneous (Hard) Endosperm
  14. Mycotoxins
  15. Assessing the Presence of Aflatoxins and Deoxynivalenol (DON)
  16. Background: Mycotoxins General
  17. Background: Aflatoxins
  18. Background: Deoxynivalenol (DON) or Vomitoxin
  19. Background: Fumonisin
  20. U.S. Corn Export System
  21. Planting and Early Growth Conditions
  22. Pollination and Grain-fill Conditions
  23. Harvest Conditions
  24. Comparison of 2019 to 2018, 2017 and the 5YA
  25. U.S. Corn Production, Usage & Outlook
  26. U.S. Corn Use and Ending Stocks
  27. Survey Design and Sampling
  28. Statistical Analysis
  29. Grade Factors
  30. Physical Factors
  31. Mycotoxins
  32. U.S. Corn Grades & Conversions

U.S. Corn Production, Usage & Outlook

U.S. Average Production and Yields

According to the December 2019 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, U.S. corn production in 2019 is projected to be 347.01 million metric tons (13,661 million bushels). If realized, this year’s crop would be the smallest since the 2015 crop produced 345.51 million metric tons (13,602 million bushels). While the projected size of the 2019 crop is smaller compared to recent years, it is important to note that the previous three U.S. corn crops were the three largest and highest yielding in U.S. history. From a historical perspective, the 2019 crop is still projected to be the sixth-largest U.S. crop on record despite the challenges associated with its historically late planting.

Average U.S. corn yield and harvested hectares are both projected to be lower than the average of the previous five crops. Average projected corn yield in 2019 is projected to be 10.48 metric tons per hectare (167.0 bushels per acre) compared to the 5YA of 10.89 metric tons per hectare (173.4 bushels per acre). In terms of harvested hectares, the projected 33.12 million (81.8 million acres) harvested is also slightly less than the 5YA of 33.61 million hectares (83.0 million acres).

  • ASD and State-Level Production

    The geographic areas included in the 2019/2020 Corn Harvest Quality Report encompass the highest corn-producing regions of the United States. The map shows the projected 2019 corn production by USDA Agricultural Statistical District (ASD). These states represent over 90.0% of U.S. corn exports.

    The U.S. Corn Production by State chart and table summarize the changes in production between each state’s 2018 and projected 2019 corn crops. The table also includes an indication of the relative changes in harvested acres and yield. A green bar indicates a relative increase, and a red bar indicates a relative decrease from 2018 to projected 2019. Eight of the 12 key corn-producing states expect large changes (greater than 10.0%) in production relative to their 2018 crops.

    While not the only factor influencing production, the delayed planting of the 2019 crop contributed to year-over-year production declines projected to be more than 15.0% in five of the 12 key corn-producing states; including Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Minnesota, the fourth largest corn-producing state, is also projected to have an 8.8% decrease in production relative to its 2018 crop. On the other hand, Kansas and Kentucky are projected to have increases in production of 23.7% and 19.2%, respectively, compared to their 2018 crops, largely due to increases in harvested acres. North Dakota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa are the only four states projected to have production changes of less than 5.0% compared to their 2018 crops.