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Corn Harvest Quality Report 2014/2015

Contents

  1. Harvest Quality Highlights
  2. Introduction
  3. Quality Test Results
  4. Moisture
  5. Chemical Composition
  6. Physical Factors
  7. Mycotoxins
  8. Crop and Weather Conditions
  9. Planting and Early Growth Conditions - Spring (March - May)
  10. Pollination and Grain Fill Conditions - Summer (June - August)
  11. Harvest Conditions (September - October +)
  12. Comparison of the 2015 Average to the 2014, 2013, and 4YA
  13. Corn Production, Usage, and Outlook
  14. U.S. Corn Use and Ending Stocks
  15. Outlook
  16. Survey and Statistical Analysis Methods
  17. Survey Design and Sampling
  18. Statistical Analysis
  19. Testing Analysis Methods
  20. Corn Grading Factors
  21. Moisture
  22. Chemical Composition
  23. Physical Factors
  24. Mycotoxin Testing
  25. U.S. Corn Grades and Conversions
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C. Outlook

1. U.S. Outlook

  • The record-setting 2014 U.S. corn crop is creating an abundant supply of corn for MY14/15. The ample corn supply has put a downward pressure on corn prices, which has helped support corn use in the domestic market. As a result, domestic use is projected to increase 2.4% from MY13/14 to MY14/15.
  • Corn use for food, seed and non-ethanol industrial (FSI) purposes is expected to remain largely unchanged in MY14/15 compared to MY13/14, continuing the pattern of the previous four marketing years.
  • Projected MY14/15 corn use for ethanol is about the same as the previous marketing year, with corn expected to represent a larger share of the ethanol feedstock. U.S. ethanol disappearance will be impacted by lower crude oil and gasoline prices, possibly weakening domestic ethanol demand and net ethanol exports.
  • Domestic corn use for livestock and poultry feeding and for residual use is expected to be about 4.5% higher in MY14/15 than in MY13/14 and at the highest level since MY07/08. Factors driving this demand include the continued decline in the relative price of corn to other feedstuffs and increasing demand due to feeding livestock longer and/or the rebuilding of livestock herds.
  • U.S. corn exports during MY14/15 are projected to be about 9.5% lower than last year, yet higher than in MY11/12 and MY12/13. Lower corn prices and ample supply will help support U.S. exports.
  • MY14/15 corn ending stocks are projected to be 38.4% higher than the previous marketing year primarily because of the large corn crop. This will increase the stocks-to-use ratio for the second year in a row.

2. International Outlook Global Supply

  • Global corn production during MY14/15 is expected to be a record-setting year, primarily due to the large U.S. corn crop.
  • Greater production for MY14/15 in the EU, Russia, Serbia and the Philippines will offset lower production in China, Brazil, Ukraine, India, Canada and Argentina.
  • In addition to slightly lower U.S. exports, total non-U.S. exports are expected to be 11% lower in MY14/15 than in MY13/14.
  • Increases in exports are expected in Serbia, South Africa and the EU. Global Demand Global corn use is expected to increase around 2% in MY14/15 from MY13/14.
  • Corn use is anticipated to be higher in MY14/15 in China, Mexico, Brazil and Russia, but lower in Canada compared to MY13/14.
  • An 11% decrease in year-over-year imports is expected globally in MY14/15, with decreases in the EU (64% decrease), Indonesia, Egypt and China.