Ocean Freight Comments
Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting: Online Shipping News reports are stating that “Panamax futures ‘technically bullish’ even as rates remain sideways.” I think that is trade (vessel owner) talk for: we are hoping and praying for something to bail us out because markets have started moving lower. It is very difficult to look at a Panamax vessel market chart and see anything bullish other than traders’ hopeful bets on the future. Derivatives traders are still willing to pay up for calendar year 2019 but have softened their bullish views regarding 2018. The terms “sideways or holding steady” seem to be the most commonly-used descriptors for the current freight markets. Physical freight buyers seem content on paying close to last week’s rates and sellers are having to accept the same. So, markets are a little soft this week and trying to hold as best they can. But as we all know, markets are not bullish.
Below is a recent history of freight values for Capesize vessels of iron ore from Western Australia to South China:
The charts below represent 2018 YTD totals versus 2017 annual totals for container shipments to China.
