Market Perspectives – May 24, 2018

Country News

Argentina: The rain has slowed, and the corn harvest has begun to pick up pace. The increased moisture will help the barley crop. (FarmLead)

Brazil: Broker and analyst FCStone is further reducing its estimate of Brazil’s corn crop. The consultancy Safras & Mercado says a smaller planted area and poor weather will cause the first and second corn crop totals to fall to 79.02 MMT, compared with 107.9 MMT last year. That is below the estimate from ag information firm AgRural, which says it will total 87.1 MMT. There was a light frost in the corn production area of Paraná state, but drought has had a far larger adverse impact. Separately, the government agency Conab has only paid out about 25 percent of the PEP and PEPRO subsidies to farmers and trading firms, blaming inconsistent submission papers. (Reuters; DTN)

China: The government ended the 178.6 percent AD/CVD duty it had announced on sorghum imports from the U.S. The U.S. supplied 4.8 MMT of sorghum to China in 2016-17. The corn auction went well except in Heilongjiang province. (World Grain; AgriCensus)

EU: The EU’s corn imports have surged 41 percent this year because of increased feed demand and cheap supplies. Corn production is edging north geographically. (Bloomberg)

Kenya: Fall army worms have infested approximately 7 percent of the corn area (160,000 ha.) and it will take 1 billion shillings ($10 million) to fight the pest and conduct research. (Bloomberg)

South Africa: Typically, South Africa sells to neighboring countries, but it has become a large supplier to the EU due to a large crop, the falling value of the rand, and a lack of storage space. Spain and Italy are forecast to buy 260 KMT of corn from South Africa this year. Sales are also being made to Vietnam. (Bloomberg; AgriCensus)