Country News
Algeria: The Office National pour Aliments de Bétail tendered for 40 KMT of feed barley for April delivery. (AgriCensus)
Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced its estimate for the corn crop by 1 MMT down to a total of 45 MMT due to drought. Rains this week have slowed the damage of the drought in the Pampas farm belt. (Reuters; Refinitiv)
Brazil: The safrinha corn crop is now 77 percent planted versus 89 percent a year ago and the remainder will be planted outside the ideal window. CONAB predicts the total corn crop for the year to be 108.069 MMT after cutting the smaller first crop estimate by 8.6 percent and raising the larger second crop estimate by 10.3 percent. However, the very slow planting of the second crop indicates that, based on analog years like 2009 and 21011, yields could be adversely impacted. Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina Dias admits that tight corn supplies are concerning to meatpackers and that prices could “take another leap.” CONAB shows prices rose as much as 3.6 percent in a week and is quoted at $204.20 – $231.50/MT. Brazil’s average corn yield is half that of the U.S. but multi-cropping enables it to be a major exporter. (Brownfield News; Reuters; AgWeb; SPGlobal Platts; AgriCensus)
China: The three bears in the corn market are ASF, imports (28 MMT to date) and substitution. The combination of new strains of ASF, cold weather and restocking density has caused a resurgence of the disease and slowed hog herd expansion. Meanwhile, feed output has increased by 21 percent thus far this year and the Ministry is advising the use of surplus rice and other feed ingredients in lieu of corn and soybean meal in hog rations. Nonetheless, Meng Jinhui, a senior analyst with Shengdu Futures in Beijing says that more large corn import purchases are possible due to demand from both the refining industry and feed mills. There is “grain shortage anxiety” and while starch has become more profitable every ton of corn-based ethanol produced loses 238 yuan ($36.58). There are rumors that Northeast Reserves is freeing up space in warehouses to accommodate more imported corn. The pressure to control the Fall Army Worm this coming growing season is very high. (Reuters; AgriCensus; DimSum; Bloomberg; JCI)
EU: French barley planting has increased rapidly and EU winter barley is projected to yield 5.88 MT/Ha, up 9.4 percent from a year ago and a 4.7 percent increase over the five-year average. Despite a tariff agreement, EU imports of barley from the UK have stalled significantly, amounting to just 40 KMT in January versus a monthly average of 232 KMT/month in late 2020. (AgriCensus; JRC MARS)
Kenya: The Kenya Agricultural & Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) concluded 10 years of trials for GMO stem borer-resistant maize that could double the country’s maize yield while reducing pesticide applications. Corn imports currently replace the 500 KMT of corn destroyed each year by the stem borer. Kenya removed its ban on corn imports from Tanzania and Uganda but insists that there must be surveillance for mycotoxins by the exporting governments. (Nation Media Group; Star)
Russia: One outcome of doubling the export tax on wheat is that shipments of corn and barley and increased. (AgriCensus)
South Korea: KFA and Kocopia purchased corn for arrival in June-July. (AgriCensus)
Taiwan: MFIG tendered for and booked 65 KMT of corn for May-June delivery. (AgriCensus)
Tunisia: The Organisation Tunisienne de Défense du Consommateur is seeking barley for shipment in April-May. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: APK-Inform says that corn export prices added $2-4/MT to reach quotes of $262-270/MT with exports falling 43 percent on the week; barley prices remain stable at $259-265/MT FOB Black Sea. So far, 14.9 MMT of corn have been exported. The state weather center says 100 percent of the winter barley crop is in good condition. (Reuters; AgriCensus; Refinitiv)