Market Perspectives – July 15, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange shows the 2020/21 corn crop is 56 percent harvested, up from 51 percent a week ago. Corn conditions are 36 percent good/excellent, but farmer sales have slowed. Meanwhile, low water (15 percent below normal) on the Parana River is causing ships to reduce their loads. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Brazil: AgRural says the safrinha corn harvest is at 20.9 percent, 15 points behind the same time last year. AgRural sees production at 85.3 MMT but Agroconsult says it is 90.2 MMT. The official estimate is 93.38 MMT. Conab lowered its estimate of the quality of the crop. The Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária reports the corn harvest at 35 percent, which lags last year, and that corn sales Mato Grosso have slowed down. Rabobank estimates that corn exports in 2020/21 will be 21 MMT, versus 33 MT last year. Corn prices are at record levels in the south and imports are to hit 2.6 MMT. (AgriCensus)

China: Incentives are encouraging farmers to plant corn over other crops and the result is a JCI projected 6.2 percent (14.9 MMT) increase in production this year. Domestic corn prices have now slumped to their lowest since late 2020, which along with high freight costs will slow imports. The PRC will increase grain storage capacity by 10.85 MMT in 2021. (Bloomberg; Reuters; AgriCensus)

EU: Exports of barley through Rouen have picked up pace. (AgriCensus)

Mexico: The Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development says annual corn imports will be cut in half by 2024. (AgriCensus)

Paraguay: Cordonnier lowered the corn crop forecast to 3 MMT, down 1.2 MMT from a month ago. This will limit the ability to sell corn to Brazil. (Soybean and Corn Advisor)

Russia: The government raised the export tax on corn but lowered it on barley. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: Yellow corn exports since the start of this marketing year on 1 May are at 535,000 MT, according to the South African Grain Information Service. That is almost double the pace of last year. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: MFG and NOFI initially passed on tenders, but KFA bought 68 KMT of corn for October/November delivery with Viterra the likely seller. The price was $237.39/MT C&F plus a surcharge for additional port unloading. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Turkey: The government agency TMO bought 440 KMT of barley in a tender. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Exports for 2021/22 are 23 MMT of corn and 4.2 MMT of barley. Black Sea corn is now selling at $290/MT CNF Korea, which is below the current replacement cost of $383-389/MT. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Vietnam: The government is cutting the tax on corn to 3 percent. (AgriCensus)