Market Perspectives – April 27, 2023

U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

U.S. Drought Monitor Weather Forecast: During the next five days (April 26 – May 1, 2023) moderate to heavy precipitation (over 1.5 inches) is expected along the southern tier of the Nation from Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley through central and northern Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard from Georgia through New England. Parts of the Upper Peninsula in Michigan are also forecast to receive 1.5 or more inches. Very heavy precipitation (3 to 5 inches) are expected in part of northeastern Texas, the central Gulf Coast Region, and southern Georgia. In contrast, little or nothing is anticipated from the High Plains westward, over the central and northern Great Plains, parts of the middle Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Lakes Region. Moderate to locally heavy precipitation was observed from the Colorado Rockies through the south-central Great Plains and adjacent areas shortly after the Drought Monitor valid period (8 am EDT Tuesday, April 25) ended, with over 1.5 inches observed in scattered areas of central Arkansas, near the Oklahoma/Kansas border, west-central Kansas, higher elevations in the Rockies, and isolated sites across northern Texas. This precipitation will be considered for the Drought Monitor valid May 2, 2023 (next week). Other areas in dryness or drought should see one-tenth to locally one inch. Below-normal temperatures are expected over the southern Great Plains and most of the eastern half of the contiguous states outside the immediate coast in the South Atlantic Region. Meanwhile, warmer than normal weather is anticipated from most of the Plains through interior sections of the West Coast States. Cooler than normal conditions are expected along most of the immediate Pacific Coastline.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid May 2 – 6, 2023) Identifies enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation in most of New England, the lower Mississippi Valley, Texas, the southern half of the High Plains, and from the Rockies to the Pacific Coast (except northwestern Washington). Odds for significantly above-normal precipitation exceed 50 percent in the Great Basin, most of California, and some adjacent areas. In contrast, subnormal totals are favored in the Southeast, the lower mid-Atlantic Region, and from the central and southern Appalachians northwestward through most of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes Region, northern half of the Mississippi Valley, the northern Plains, and the Upper Midwest. Enhanced chances for cooler than normal weather cover California and adjacent areas in the Southwest and Great Basin, and in most locations from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Meanwhile, unusually warm weather is expected from the northern Rockies and Intermountain West through most of the Rockies and the southern half of the High Plains.

Follow this link to view current U.S. and international weather patterns and future outlook: Weather and Crop Bulletin.