Market Perspectives – October 31, 2019

Country News

Argentina: Farmers are selling their maize ahead of the new government arriving in December. About 50 MMT or 76 percent of the 2018/19 corn crop has been booked. Farmers may produce less if the new government raises grain export taxes as expected. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Brazil: Poultry farmers now have competition from ethanol for corn supplies with the result that basis is heating up. (AgriCensus)

China: Corn futures rose 1.25 percent to 1,859/MT ($264.11) on bad weather and stronger than expected demand. Farmers are feeding more corn to their hogs to take advantage of higher pork prices. (Reuters)

Ethiopia: Kenya is discussing an agreement to buy grain including corn. The road system between the two countries has been improving. (Reuters)

EU: The crop monitoring system MARS cut its yield forecast for the maize crop by 0.78 percent to 7.57 MT/Ha. Th yield for maize is down 9.3 percent from last year. The corn harvest in Germany and France has been moving slowly due to rain. (Refinitiv; AgriCensus))

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee increased its forecast for the 2019 corn crop by approximately 100 KMT to 11.187 MMT (5.53 MMT/white; 5.65 MMT/yellow). Planted area will increase from 2.301 million hectares in 2018/19 to 2.519 million for 2019/20. Corn planting intentions for the 2020 corn crop are up 9.5 percent but sorghum planting intentions are down 14.7 percent. (Refinitiv)

South Korea: MFG has returned to the market for corn, buying 69 KMT at $207.80/MT. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: MFIG has returned to the market for corn, buying from CHS for January shipment.  (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The country is gearing up for a make or break 2019/20 corn export period. (AgriCensus)

Zimbabwe: Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube says that half the nation’s 14 million people lack reliable access to food after the worst drought in 40 years ruined the maize crop. (Bloomberg)