Market Perspectives – October 22, 2020

Country News

Argentina: Private forecasts say corn production will hit 50 MMT but the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says dry conditions are hampering the sowing of the crop. In the meantime, farmers have increased selling due to higher prices. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: The 8 percent tariff on imported corn will be suspended until 31 March 2021 to temper high prices that are harming meat producers and consumers. The exporters association ANEC says corn exports hit 5.5 MMT for the week, up 300 KMT from a week earlier. One analyst predicts corn production will be 110 MMT this year. Corn-based ethanol production is forecast to more than double over the next two years as more projects are complete. Corn-based ethanol production will hit 2.5 billion liters in 2020/21 but could rise to 5.5 billion liters by 2022 and 8 billion liters by 2028. (FAS GAIN; Reuters)

Canada: Oat exports are a third higher than last year with 450 KMT now shipped. This year’s crop is slightly smaller, and prices are up a bit but stocks in the U.S. are higher and so there is downside risk. (FarmLead)

China: Rising prices indicate stocks are tighter than officially presented but the agriculture ministry says it has no plans to intervene. The corn harvest is predicted to be large despite typhoon damage than merely forced harvesting by hand instead of machine. (Gro Intelligence; Bloomberg

Japan: There was a tender for 100 KMT of barley. (AgriCensus)

Russia: Frosts and rains have delayed the corn harvest and yields are below last year. (AgriCensus)

Thailand: The Thai Feed Millers Association is tendering for barley for December-March. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Amid fears of further price rises, feed millers are stocking up on corn. Kocopia bought corn at $251.82/MT, KFA booked a cargo at $246.83/MT. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: The Office des Cereales (ODC) tendered for barley with a November-December delivery. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Harvesting is 44 percent complete and has yielded 11.1 MMT of corn. Exports are up and FOB corn prices have hit their highest level since 2014. (AgriCensus)

Vietnam: Corn demand is increasing due to higher feed demand and ethanol usage. (USDA)