Market Perspectives – October 21, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that recent rains in the central part of the country have enabled farmers to plant 30 percent of the new season’s maize crop. Export licenses for corn have surged but crop sales are down, and the government’s new export policy may cause farmers to limit their corn planting. (Reuters)

Brazil: Fertilizer costs have spiked and supplies may be limited, which will reduce corn yields in the 2021/22 crop. StoneX says that only 39 percent of farmers have secured their fertilizer needs for the first half of 2022. IMEA says that corn sales from the past crop are mixed. Deral reports that 88 percent of Parana’s corn crop has been planted. (Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

China: Traders and analysts say that corn prices have fallen back sufficiently that some feed makers are switching back using the yellow grain instead of wheat and other substitutes. Meanwhile, corn imports in September surged 227 percent from a year earlier to 3.53 MMT. CASDE expects corn imports to be 20 MMT in 2021/22 but Platts Analytics sees the level closer to 21 MMT or 22 MMT. (Reuters; SPGlobal; AgriCensus)

EU: Farm groups are questioning whether they will plant as many crops as possible in the spring or if production will falter due to the shortage of fertilizer. Ammonia prices are at a 13-year high, and fertilizer’s share of production costs could rise from the usual one-third to half the total. Farmers may switch crops by dropping fertilizer intensive corn and planting sunflowers instead. Separately, France AgriMer reports that farmers have harvested 15 percent of this year’s maize crop, up from 7 percent a week earlier. This is still well behind the 62 percent pace achieved last year. (Bloomberg; Reuters)

India: Analysts believe that the nation’s corn prices have regained their competitiveness in the Vietnamese feed market. (AgriCensus)

Japan: The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries reports that corn use in animal feed in August fell to 46.9 percent from 49.8 percent a year earlier. (Reuters)

South Korea: Feed makers KFA and NOFI negotiated the purchase of 135 KMT of corn in private transactions. FLC also utilized the private route to buy corn at $330/MT, and MFG bought corn at $326/MT. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: TMO tendered for 235 KMT of barley for delivery in December. (AgriCensus)