Market Perspectives – October 18, 2018

Country News

Brazil: The weather is favorable for first crop corn planting, and emergence and development and has hit 44 percent in the Centre South region. That is up 6 percent on the week and ahead of the 37 percent accomplished by this time last year, and ahead of the 5-year average of 38 percent. The government food statistics agency Conab says the output for corn in 2018/19 will rise 12.75 percent to 91.08 MMT. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Canada: Barley in western Canada was shorted on moisture during the summer and now is too wet and snowy to be harvested. A continuation of these weather conditions will downgrade the crop to feed grade. (Bloomberg)

China: An estimated 50,000 pigs (0.011 percent of all pigs) have been slaughtered in the effort to combat an outbreak of African Swine Fever (AFS). With 433 million pigs, China has half the world’s stock of swine. The AFS problem is not large enough to cause a feed demand issue but is being watched. The corn auction in Heilongjiang province cleared 16.4 percent of the volume offered. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

EU: Corn harvesting is benefiting from drier-than-average weather. The German corn crop is larger than was expected but is still 40 percent smaller than last year. The harvest in France is estimated at 65 percent. The front month Euronext contract for corn is €174/MT and a reported cargo of 25 KMT of Bulgarian corn priced at €170/MT is believed to be in route to the French Atlantic port of La Pallice. Ukraine’s corn, which loads shipboard at €164.75/MT, may be the next to arbitrage even this slight price advantage. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Jordan: The state grain buying agency has tendered for 120 KMT of feed barley to be sourced from optional origins. Jordan bought a Panamax of Russian barley. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

South Korea: Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI), the nation’s largest animal feed maker, has issued a tender to purchase 16 KMT of corn gluten feed. (Reuters)

Ukraine: Corn harvesting has reached the half-way point with dry weather facilitating fast paced combining. Yields to date are reportedly impressive. The corn crop is expected to be just under 30 MMT, or 20 percent larger than the 2017/18 crop. Meanwhile, 713,000 hectares have been sown thus far to winter barley. (Reuters; AgriCensus)