Market Perspectives – October 14, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The 2020/21 corn export season ended with licenses capped at 38.6 MMT. New corn crop sowing was estimated at 21.2 percent complete by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. (AgriCensus)

Australia: When China imposed 80.5 percent punitive duties on Aussie barley in a political spat, shipments switched to other markets and farmers changed 10-15 percent of area to canola and other crops. Good weather still favored a good barley crop, but the switch has kept income stable as a result. (Reuters)

Brazil: The new year’s corn crop at 118 MMT will be 40 percent larger than the previous drought-stricken year (85 MMT). That assumes a yield of 5.65 MT/Ha with a 5 percent increase in planted area, with the result being exports jumping from 19 MMT to 43 MMT. (FAS GAIN)

China: The agriculture ministry’s corn crop estimate was lowered by 850 KMT to 270.96 MMT due adverse rains in the northern region. Corn quality may also be impacted by the higher cost of drying as energy prices spike. The nation’s 2020/21 corn imports were pegged at 30 MMT but are forecast to decline in 2021/22. (Reuters; FAS GAIN)

EU: The maize crop benefited from summer rains and FranceAgriMer boosted its projection 4.3 percent to 13.9 MMT. By contrast, the barley crop was cut by 300 KMT to a total of 11.4 MMT. (FranceAgriMer)

Nigeria: The government gave provisional approval to open cultivate and evaluate the GMO crop called TELA maize, a plant modified to tolerate both moderate drought and the fall army worm and stem borer. If approved for commercial production, Nigeria would become the second Africa nation after South Africa to approve GMO corn production. (Reuters)

Russia: The government declined a request from brewers to stem barley exports in a bid to reduce rising ingredient costs. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: The governments TMO preliminarily purchased 230 KMT of barley in a tender for November delivery and provisionally purchased 325 KMT of corn. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The consultancy SovEcon sees the corn crop being 1.2 MMT smaller for a total of 38.4 MMT in output, still much larger than the previous year. Fields are wet and farmers are delaying harvest to avoid high drying costs, which is frustrating exporters. (Reuters)