Market Perspectives – October 10, 2019

Country News

Argentina: The Rosario Exchange estimates the corn crop will be 47.5 MMT, down from the previous estimate of 50 MMT, and down from the 51 MMT produced last year. Farmers are planting soybeans since they are less expensive and thus a lower risk given the political uncertainty. Dry weather is taking its toll on acreage as well, but more favorable moisture is now expected in the Pampas region. (Reuters)

Australia: The barley crop this year will only be up slightly due to the drought. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: CONAB forecasts the 2019/20 total corn crop at 98.4 MMT, a 1.7 percent decline from last year. First season corn production is estimated at 26.293 MMT and the safrinha crop at 70.936 MMT. Corn exports are pegged at 34 MMT. Beginning with the 2019/20 growing season, there will be a third crop of corn counted for a short season variety grown in Sergipe, Alagoas and northeast Bahia. (Reuters)

China: The National Grain Trade Centre announced the end of a four-year program to work down surplus corn stocks via auction. (AgriCensus)

EU: The French corn harvest has fallen further behind but FOB corn in Eastern Europe is now some of the cheapest globally. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Despite ASF, the feed sector is seeking to import corn at under $200/MT. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: ProAgro consultancy increased their 2019/20 Ukraine corn export forecast to 31.6 MMT, up 1.6 MMT from a month earlier. However, the forecast corn yield for this year is expected to decline as the crop reaches 33 percent harvested. (AgriCensus; Reuters)