Country News
Argentina: Refinitiv Ag Research lowered its forecast for 2020/21 corn production to 44.5 MMT (range 39.4-48.8 MMT), from 45.6 MMT previously (Oct. 14), citing lingering dryness in the northern half of the Pampas. (Refinitiv)
Brazil: Safras Mercado forecasts 2020/21 corn harvest to 116.4 MMT, up 900,000 mt versus the consultancy’s previous estimate. The Brazil government pegged October corn exports at 5.15 MMT, versus 6.0 MMT a year ago. ANEC says November corn exports will be 4.15 MMT. Corn prices set a historic high during the last week of October with the local futures price at the equivalent to $6.80/bushel. The first crop corn is hurting from low moisture in the south and planting of the safrinha crop (three-quarters of total production) could be delayed, reducing eventual exports. (Reuters; Soybean and Corn Advisor)
Canada: Barley loadings have surged even as other grain exports have dropped. (AgriCensus)
China: A shortage of ethanol has some blenders reducing their use of the corn-based fuel and the level of imports has been scant thus far. This raises questions about the country’s commitment to E-10 blending. The surge in corn prices have caused ethanol producers to keep inventories low. Corn prices are expected to move even higher and the supply shortage could be 60 MMT in 2020/21. Nutrien Ltd. says it expects to see strong demand for corn in feed rations.
Corn is already trading at a 39 RMB/MT ($5.90/MT) premium to wheat after starting the year at 477 RMB/MT ($72.20/MT) below the cost of wheat. Corn and rice are now priced on par, making it possible that rice goes into the feed ration. There was a sale of 106 KMT of U.S. sorghum to China this week, the first flash sale since June. A separate USDA report indicates that China has purchased 340,451 tons of sorghum in the week ended 29 October, its biggest weekly total since early August. (Bloomberg; Gro Intelligence; Reuters)
EU: Barley loadings in Rouen have been dominated by sales to China. (AgriCensus)
Mexico: The drop in futures prices encouraged the purchase of 1.433 MMT of U.S. corn, the largest flash sale in nearly a year. Large Mexican farmers say they cannot meet domestic demand after government cuts in funding. Mexico typically books U.S. corn in the fall when prices are lower but this year it is costing more. Meanwhile, a phytosanitary agreement with China could enable sorghum sales. (Reuters; AgriCensus)
Russia: Weekly barley exports dropped, though corn exports were higher. (AgriCensus)
South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee says that corn production will reach 15.4 MMT in 2021. USDA/FAS sees an 11 percent expansion in planted area and raised its output forecast from 12.6 to 14 MMT but exports drop from 2.5 MMT last season to 2 MMT this coming year. (AgriCensus; FAS GAIN)
South Korea: There were several private purchases of corn including one by KFA and total buys in October by feed makers was 1.5 MMT. (AgriCensus)
Tunisia: The government’s Office des Cereales bought barley at $234.19/MT. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: Traders sold 2.5 MMT of corn into export thus far in the July-June 2020/21 marketing year, versus 4.4 MMT during the same period a year ago. The corn harvest is at 56 percent and meat producers have asked the government to limit corn exports in 2020/21. (Refinitiv; AgriCensus)
Vietnam: Feed makers may confront a corn supply shortage during the first quarter of 2021 due to limited supply options. (AgriCensus)