Market Perspectives – May 3, 2018

Country News

Argentina: Damage to Santa Fe’s north berth at the T6 terminal will take a year to repair. The terminal will prioritize exporting soybeans, forcing corn to move out of other ports. However, this is not expected to be a problem since this year’s corn crop is expected to be reduced by 20 to 25 percent from last year. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: Some major corn production areas have not had rain in three weeks and none is forecast until around May 10. This is leading AgRural to question whether a production estimate of 63.6 MMT is achievable. (AgRural; Reuters)

China: Only 62 percent of the 3.94 MMT of corn offered at auction on April 27 was sold. A small amount (1 KMT) of 2013 corn actually sold for a higher price (CNY 1,420/MT; $224/MT) than the 2014 stocks (CNY 1,392/MT; $219.66/MT). Meanwhile, none of the 2015 crop of corn offered was sold. The auctions continue on May 3-4. (AgriCensus)

Russia: Corn production in 2018/19 will hit 16.4 MMT, a 20 percent increase due to a 10 percent increase in planted area. However, barley production will fall by 4 percent to 19.3 MMT as yields face more normal weather conditions than the above average conditions last year. Corn exports are forecast at 6.8 MMT and barley exports will be 4.5 MMT. (USDA/FAS)

Saudi Arabia: The Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) expects to import only 8 MMT of barley in 2017/18 and that will drop to 7.5 MMT in 2018/19. As a water conservation method, the government is discouraging hay production and instead boosting domestic animal feed production. (USDA/FAS)

Ukraine: Prices received for corn have dropped 2.3 percent over the past week to $201/MT FOB as a result of suppressed sales to China. Demand has suffered due to China’s auctioning of surplus domestic stocks, and the diversion of U.S. sorghum since Beijing imposed an antidumping duty on it. A delayed spring and evidence from satellite imagery indicates a late planting schedule and this could hurt corn yields. The pace has picked up and about a third of the corn crop is now planted. (Reuters; AgriCensus)