Country News
Argentina: Some parts of the corn production area have reported half the normal precipitation and what fell was barely enough to counter evaporation. The drought is more like 2012 than the more severe conditions of 2009. Moreover, wetter conditions are now possible going forward, though they come late in the production cycle. USDA’s March WASDE report predicts corn production at 36 MMT. A solar minimum is said to be the cause of the La Niña condition and its drought, and a solar minimum is due to occur again in 2019.
Separately, the government has approved new GMO corn varieties for use by farmers. The approval follows an agreement by producers to pay royalties to seed technology firms. (Reuters; AgriCensus)
Brazil: The combination of favorable rains and higher prices (up 22 percent in little over a month) could encourage farmers to plant a larger second crop of corn than currently forecast. Wetness has slowed harvest of the soybean crop and has thus delayed planting of corn, but the big question is how long the rains last before it goes into a typical dry period. Agricultural meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos of Rural Clima believes it could last into mid-April, rather than quitting as it typically does at the end of March. (AgriCensus)
Although winter corn planting is behind last year’s record rate, Conab’s February forecast called for a 63.3 MMT winter corn crop and its March forecast is for overall production at 87.3 MMT. USDA’s March WASDE forecast for overall Brazilian corn production was lowered by 0.5 MMT to 94.5 MMT. However, some private forecasters believe farmers will now plant much more corn and production could total 95-98 MMT. This ignores the fact that farmers may run out of time to get second crop corn acres planted. (Reuters; AgriCensus; Farm Futures)
EU: The import duty on corn and sorghum was reduced from €5.61/MT to €0.56/MT based on a formula that tracks prices. Higher corn prices will not slow down imports, which are up almost 50 percent from a year ago to 10 MMT. Corn imports could grow even larger. (AgriCensus)
UK: The UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has increased its estimate for domestic corn utilization from 1.84 MMT to 1.9 MMT, mostly due to a switch from wheat to corn in the manufacture of ethanol. (AgriCensus)
South Korea: The feed buyer NOFI last week rejected corn shipments bid at $203.75/MT but this week it may have paid $220/MT as an overall 500 KMT of optional origin corn was bought by feed groups. A May cargo sold at $214/MT, a June delivery is at $213.50/MT, and a third delivery is priced at $223/MMT. (AgriCensus)
South Africa: Grain SA believes the country will produce 12.2 MMT of maize and export 3.7 MMT. This is much higher than USDA’s prediction of 1.7 MMT of exports, largely due to the disparity in counting beginning stocks. USDA indicates South Africa has 3 MMT of surplus corn but Grain SA says it is 6 MMT. The amount ultimately exported will be heavily influenced by variable yields. (AgriCensus)
Turkey: The state grain board TMO is tendering for 149 KMT of corn with bids due by 13 March. Delivery is to be 19 March-8 April. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: Feed wheat prices have been dropping due to abundant high protein wheat and barley at the same time corn prices have been rising and the two are nearly at the point of parity. Bids for Russian 10.5 percent protein wheat were at $193/MT and 11.5 percent protein at $197/MT. Led by demand from the Netherlands this week, Ukrainian corn bid prices hit $198/MT on 6 March and then $190.25/MT on 7 March. (AgriCensus; Platts)