Market Perspectives – March 15, 2018

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its forecast for 2017/18 corn production by 3 MMT to a total of 34 MMT. The Rosario Board of Trade predicts 35 MMT; USDA says 36 MMT. Yields in the center and south are 3.2 MT/Ha, down 45 percent from last year. In the core production regions, yields are between 3.4 MT/Ha and 3.9 MT/Ha, still below the last season. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: The two biggest ports, Santos and Paranagua, exported 2.8 MMT of corn in January and February, up from 1.4 MMT during the same months last year. However, farmers are now refusing to sell and when coupled with infrastructure limitations, some meat processors are importing corn with 60 KMT bought from Argentina and more possibly sought from the U.S. (Reuters)

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics expects a corn crop of 86.1 MMT, Conab lowered its corn production estimate by 700 KMT to 87.3 MMT but Agrural says it will be 89.9 MMT, and the trade expects 89 MMT.

China: Juhui Huang of BRF says that China has expanded its corn processing capacity by 33 MMT to a total of 137 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Egypt: The November 2016 devaluation of the pound and its flotation has led to a 15-20 percent reduction in meat demand and will thus cut corn import requirements by 600 KMT, or 4 percent. However, inflation has now fallen, and consequently demand should recover. (FAS/USDA)

South Korea: Feed millers have purchased 700 KMT of corn in the past few days and the latest tenders are said to be priced at $225-$227/MT. (AgriCensus) 

Turkey: After tendering for 149 KMT of corn and not liking the prices offered ($220 -$235.75/MT), state grain buying agency TMO has cancelled any purchasing. The high prices and lack of Russian corn in the market may force reconsideration of the 25 percent duty on imports. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: At $198.75/MT FOB and April loading prices heard at $208/MT, corn has hit parity with high protein (12.5 percent) wheat. Some say the corn price is either too high or the wheat price too low but continued buying may mean it has not hit a cap. (AgriCensus)