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Market Perspectives – July 26, 2018

Contents

  1. Chicago Board of Trade Market News
  2. CBOT December Corn Futures
  3. U.S. Weather/Crop Progress
  4. U.S. Export Statistics
  5. FOB
  6. Distiller's Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
  7. Country News
  8. Ocean Freight Markets and Spread
  9. Ocean Freight Comments
  10. Interest Rates

Country News

Argentina: At 90 cents over September futures, corn basis bids were above FOB values, causing exporters to take losses on sales and face difficulties in attracting new business. This market pressure forced prices lower. The Bolsa de Cereales has cut its corn harvest estimate by 3.1 percent and now the crop may face a frost risk over the next week. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Australia: Barley planting in New South Wales and Queensland is on hold except in irrigated areas due to the drought. By contrast, barley fields in Southern Australia have had ample rainfall. (World-Grain)

Brazil: Corn premiums have moved higher based on buying and now the weather has created some unfavorable harvest conditions. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Canada: Corn is being exported to the EU at the fastest pace in four years and could reach 1.2 MMT. (Reuters; Washington Trade Daily)

China: Purchases of barley has more than doubled due to poorer crops in Australia and Europe. China could buy 1 MMT of barley from Canada this year. USDA estimates the European barley crop at 59 MMT and the Australian crop at 8 MMT, both the smallest in five years. The Heilongjiang corn auction sold 1.1 MMT at an average price of CNY 1,421/MT ($209.19/MT). (Reuters; AgriCensus)

EU: A smaller barley crop will reduce the amount in animal feeding and there may be a 500 KMT shortage of malting barley. France may be the only bright production spot for barley this year, though the consultancy Strategie Grains has cut its estimate for French barley from 12.1 MMT to 11.5 MMT, and some analysts say the crop could be as small as 10.5 MMT. European cows will be eating more corn and less wheat due to declines in the latter crop. (Reuters; Bloomberg)

Philippines: The Philippine Coconut Authority purchased over 4 MT of corn seed to help coconut farmers with intercropping and thus boosts to their income, but the Commission on Audit says the Authority paid nearly $19,000 too much. (ABS CBN News) 

Ukraine: Corn exports were down 14.4 percent for 2017/18. The State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU) says it shipped nearly 1 MMT of corn to China during 2017/18. The 2018 barley crop will be the smallest amount harvested in the past six years. (AgriCensus; World-Grain; WPI)