Market Perspectives – July 2, 2020

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that the corn harvest has advanced 7.6 percent. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: The government reduced its estimate for 2019/20 corn production from 100.99 MMT to 100.12 MMT. The corn export estimate was reduced from 34.5 MMT to 33.5 MMT. The exporter association Anec says corn exports are averaging 774,850 MT/month. IMEA says Mato Grosso corn is starting to confront logistics challenges. A Dartmouth study in the journal Nature Sustainability calculates that corn yields are 5 – 10 percent lower due to adverse climate impacts from clearing and planting in the Cerrado. It claims the amazon is being saved at the expense of the Cerrado, where only 3 percent of land is protected from development. The loss of transpiration has reduced rainfall and raised nighttime temperatures. (Reuters; Refinitiv; AgriCensus)

Canada: Stats Canada says the corn planted area will be 3.559 million acres, a 3.7 percent declined from 2019 and the lowest in five years. Barley planted area will be 7.503 million acres, up 1.4 percent from 2019 and the highest since 2009. Oat area is 3.839 million acres, the highest in 12 years and 18 percent above the 5-year average. (Reuters)

China: It has become a seller’s market for corn. Trading rules were changed to dampen bidding enthusiasm at sales of reserve corn and premiums subsided in some provinces though it was still 100 percent subscribed. The average price at the latest auction was RMB1,871/MT ($264.75), a 0.69 percent decline. Wheat is still competitive as a feed ingredient. BRICS estimates the market deficit to be 25-40 MMT and as a result, imports will be 10-20 MMT of corn, sorghum, barley and DDGS, with reserve stocks filling thew rest. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs estimates corn production this year at 266.5 MMT, creating a 19 MMT deficit compared to demand and imports of 5 MMT priced 7.7 percent lower than domestic prices. The adverse impact of fall army worm is disputed, and hog production is expected to hit 80 percent of normal. (DimSum)

EU: The French barley harvest has begun. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee reduced its estimate for the 2020 corn crop by 0.5 percent to 15.5 MMT. (AgriCensus)

South Korea:  MFG bought corn from Cargill priced at $184/MT. Kocopia purchased 60 KMT of corn from Cofco for October arrival. (AgriCensus)

Thailand: Importers bought 50 KMT of barley. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The state weather forecaster for the agriculture department says the corn harvest will be 39 MMT, up from 35.8 MMT a year ago. (Refinitiv)