Market Perspectives – January 24, 2019

Country News

Argentina: The Bolsa de Cereales cautions that corn plantings could be dampened by the export tax. (AgriCensus)

Canada: Large imports of feed from the U.S. means that Agriculture Canada will have to increase its current estimate of 2.45 MMT of annual barley exports. (FarmLead)

China: Imports of feeds including barley and sorghum fell dramatically in December. Facing a 25 percent tariff, sorghum imports were zero for the month compared to a year earlier and barley imports were down 75 percent to 140 KMT versus December 2017. For the year, China imported 6.82 MMT of barley, a 23.1 percent decline. December corn imports were 420 KMT, an increase, and the total for the year was up 24.7 percent to 3.52 MMT. Separately, A Chinese ministry assertion that the last of aging corn stocks will be sold in 2019 is challenged by what some say are 70-80 MMT of remaining corn stockpiles. The protein level in feed rations fell in 2018 due to soybean import restrictions. While ASF could reduce pork production, some believe the corn import quota will double to 10 MMT. (Reuters; SP Global Platts)

Egypt: Cold weather stymied poultry production and thus corn imports were well below the 700 KMT predicted by the government. The slowdown in poultry production caused corn prices to fall by $10-20/MT. Demand will likely rise in January. (SPGlobal)

India: It is believed that the country is edging closer to having to import corn. (AgriCensus)

Jordan: With barley prices stabilizing, Jordan bought 60 KMT in an optional origin tender for up to 120 KMT. The sale was made at $223.20/MT C&F for shipment in second half June. The price was $35.30/MT less than a week before and down 20 percent from the $276/MT paid in October. By purchasing only half the tender, Jordan signals that it expects prices to fall further. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Paraguay: Corn exports were down 27 percent. (AgriCensus)

Russia: Russian news agencies had quoted Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev saying the government would regulate domestic grain prices to stabilize the local market but the only known mechanism in continued use is subsidized rail rates for grain shipping from remote regions. (Reuters)

South Korea: Without using a tender, feed buying cooperative KFA bought 60 KMT of corn at $208.20/MT C&F plus $1/MT for additional port discharges. Another 65 KMT was bought by KFA’s Incheon section. Meanwhile, Western Australian growers in the Ord region are having success with the gritting corn seed (P1756) enabling them to ship 30 KMT of corn to Korea’s Dong-Il this year amidst plans for expansion in the future. Perfecting production of the GMO-free corn was not without its challenges. (AgriCensus; Grain Central)

Tunisia: The government tendered for 50 KMT of feed barley and paid less than in its last tender. (AgriCensus)