Market Perspectives – February 25, 2021

Country News

Algeria: The Office Algerien Interprofessionnel des Cereales (OAIC) bought 150 KMT of feed barley at $280.20/MT for March delivery. (AgriCensus)

Argentina: Recent rains have helped stem corn crop losses though late season moisture levels will be very important. Industry sources expect barley exports to China to reach 1.5 MMT in 2021, boosted by an 80.5 percent tariff imposed by Beijing on barley from Australia. (Refinitiv; Reuters; AgriCensus)

Brazil: Wet conditions have caused soybean harvesting to fall behind by half and will delay corn planting, pushing the safrinha corn crop pollination into the less favorable dry period. Second crop corn planting is at 20 percent, which is 31 percent behind last year. IMEA notes that corn planting in Mato Grosso is 79 percent behind year ago levels. Conab raised the amount of area to be planted to corn due to high prices, but lowered yields. A Reuters compilation of 11 sources indicates 2021 corn production will be 108.2 MMT versus 102.5 MMT a year ago. Further planting delays could cause the area planted to decline. (Refinitiv; Reuters)

China: The Agriculture Ministry says the hog inventory will return to normal by the end of June and slaughter to normal levels by the end of 2021, ensuring full feed demand. The government intends to expand the area planted to corn in 2021 by 667,000 hectares, or 1.6 percent. (Reuters)

EU: The corn import estimate was reduced by 2 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Jordan: MIT purchased another 60 KMT of barley for second-half September delivery. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: Farmers will harvest 10 percent more maize in 2020/21 compared to last year due to good weather conditions. The government’s Crop Estimates Committee says the area planted to maize is 2.8 million hectares and another 43,300 hectares are sown to sorghum. Maize production is estimated at 15.8 MMT, up from 15.3 MMT last season. (Refinitiv; FAS GAIN)

South Korea: Kocopia purchased 60 KMT of corn at $309/MT but NOFI passed on a tender for corn delivery in June. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: The Organisation Tunisienne de Défense du Consommateur (ODC) tendered for barley for delivery in March-April. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: January corn exports were just 1.99 MMT in January but traders expect exports will reach 2.8 MMT in February and 2.85 MMT in March. (Reuters)