Market Perspectives – December 15, 2022

Country News

Brazil: Bountiful rains and below normal temperatures are favorable conditions for the corn crop. The exporters association Anec raised its estimate of December corn exports and Conab says Brazil will export a record 41.5 MMT of corn in 2022. (FarmProgress; AgriCensus)

China: The Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report left its key numbers for corn unchanged. Despite a smaller planted area, the National Statistics Bureau reports that corn production in 2022 was up 1.7 percent, year-on-year, reaching 277.2 MMT, due to good weather. (AgriCensus; Financial Post)

India: The livestock industry is asking the government to restrict corn exports in order to reduce their cost of poultry feed. (Reuters)

South Korea: NOFI purchased 69 KMT of corn for Feb-Mar delivery at $329.99/MT. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: A third of the corn crop is stranded in the fields due to weather conditions that started with record autumn rainfall followed by snow. USDA pegs production at 27 MMT, a five-year low, and the corn harvested in the spring, but quality and quantity may be impacted. The war has limited the ability to dry the crop and moisture level is at 25 percent, versus the 18-20 percent normal at storage. Still, Ukraine has exported corn and other products more efficiently than expected given the destruction imposed on the country by the war. In fact, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has raised its estimate of Ukraine’s 2022/23 exports to 20.2 MMT of corn and 2.8 MMT of barley. Ending stocks of barley will dip to pre-war levels but excess corn will remain high at 8.3 MMT. (Bloomberg; Refinitiv; USDA)