Market Perspectives – December 10, 2020

Country News

Algeria: The government’s Office National des Aliments (ONAB) paid $6/MT more than in its previous tender for the purchase of 35,000 MT of corn. (AgriCensus)

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) estimates corn planting progress at 35 percent complete on a projected area of 6.3 million hectares. That is higher than a week ago but 13 points behind a year ago. BAGE says recent rains have improved crop conditions in the center of the production area and “maintain necessary surface moisture for soy and corn seedings.” Corn exports were a record 34.5 MMT during January/October, up 10 percent versus 2019, per a study by the Cordoba Grain Exchange.  Vietnam was the largest buyer along with Egypt. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Australia: Barley production this year will be up 33 percent and yield 12 MMT, the second largest crop ever. Typically, over half the barley goes to China but due to bilateral trade tensions, Aussie barley will compete against other suppliers in markets like Japan, Southeast Asia, Saudi Arabia and North Africa. (AHDB).

Brazil: The consultancy AgRural cut its estimate for first-crop corn yields for the third time and says the drought has reduced output to 110.1 60-kilogram bags/hectare, the lowest amount since 2014/15. It described recent rains as “too late” for corn planted in the late August/early September timeframe. According to the government food statistics agency Conab, the total for 2020/21 corn production will be 102.589 MMT, a 2.2 percent reduction from the November estimate. Meanwhile, corn exports in December have hit 1.14 MMT. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Canada: Seed technology companies are offering 30 new hybrid varieties of corn this coming season to Western Prairie producers. The varieties are designed to fit various heat units and growing conditions. (Grain News)

China: Despite unfavorable weather, the National Bureau of Statistics says that corn produced in 2020 was 260.67 MMT, barely down from last year’s 260.77 MMT. The agriculture ministry kept its corn import estimate at 7 MMT despite higher estimates from other sources. However, some in the trade question how there can concurrently be large stocks and record high prices. After negligible purchases in recent years, China now accounts for a third of U.S. corn exports and fully 80 percent of American sorghum overseas sales. However, Cofco is rumored to be doing some advance purchasing from Brazil. (Bloomberg; Reuters; AgriCensus; Refinitiv)

EU: The grain trade association COCERAL forecasts 2021 EU-27+UK barley production at 61.5 MMT, down from 63.1 MMT last year, and the corn crop at 63.1 MMT, up from last year’s 62.8 MMT. Corn production is expanding in the Balkan member countries while dropping off in other areas. (World Grain)

Jordan: Four trading companies competed to supply the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) with 120 KMT of animal feed barley in a tender that closed on Tuesday. (Reuters)

South Korea: MFG bought optional origin corn for mid-May arrival and both MFG and KFA bought corn for June arrival. The Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) made a private purchase of 69 KMT of corn and NOFI bought 69 KMT of optional origin corn. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Taiwan: The Maize Industry Procurement Association bought 65 KMT of optional origin corn. (AgrCensus)

Ukraine: The Economy Ministry reports that through the first five months of the 2020/21 campaign, 6.1 MMT of corn have been exported, down from 8.6 MMT at this time last year. Harvest is now 96 percent complete with 28 MMT of corn recovered. The reduced volume coupled with increased infrastructure capacity means intense competition amongst exporters.  (World Grain; AgriCensus)