Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook
USDA will release its first survey-based yield estimates for US corn and soybean production on Monday, August 12 at 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT). A survey of trade analysts shows that they are looking for a corn yield of 182.1 bushels per acre, which would be 1.1 bu/acre higher than the July report. The range of estimates are from a low of 180.1 bu/acre to a high of 184 bu/acre. Harvested acres are expected to drop to 82.967 million acres, down 471,000 acres from the July estimate. The range in trade estimates on acreage is from 82.2 million on the low side to 83.45 million acres on the high side. Production estimates average 15.112 billion bushels, up 12 million bushels from the July estimate with a range of 14.92 billion bushels on the low side to 15.264 billion bushels on the high side.
The average of the soybean yield estimates is 52.5 bu/acre which would be 0.5 bu/acre higher than the July estimate. The low estimate is 51.5 bu/acre, and the high estimate is 53.9 bu/acre. Soybean acreage is expected to be 85.11 million acres, down 151,000 acres from the July estimate. The low estimate is 84.7 million acres, and the high estimate is 85.6 million acres. Soybean production is expected to be 4.469 billion bushels, up 34 million bushels from the July estimate. The low estimate is 4.38 billion bushels, and the high estimate is 4.565 billion bushels.
Ending stocks for 2023/24 US corn are expected to be 1.876 billion bushels, essentially unchanged from the July estimate. The low estimate is 1.825 billion bushels, and the high estimate is 1.954 billion bushels. For the 2024/25 marketing year, US corn ending stocks are expected to be 2.096 billion bushels, essentially unchanged from the July estimate. The low estimate is 1.897 billion bushels, and the high estimate is 2.285 billion bushels.
For 2023/24 soybeans, ending stocks are expected to be 349 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from the July estimate with a range of 341 million bushels to 365 million bushels. For the 2024/25 marketing year, US ending stocks of soybeans are expected to be 465 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from the July estimate with a range of 380 million bushels to 555 million bushels.
Traders expect USDA’s estimates of world ending stocks for 2024/25 corn to decline to 310.94 million metric tons (MMT) which would be a decline of 0.7 MMT. The range of estimates is from 307 MMT to 313 MMT. For soybeans, world ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to be 127.97 MMT, up 0.29 MMT from July with a range of 125.60 MMT to 130.50 MMT. Wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to be 256.87 MMT, a decline of 0.37 MMT. The range in world wheat ending stocks is from 253.00 MMT to 258.70 MMT.
US cash corn basis levels are weakening as a sizable quantity of corn will change hands during the next few weeks as producers clean out grain bins in preparation for the on-coming new crop harvest. Farmers are holding a larger-than-normal portion of the corn and soybean ending stocks as they resisted selling at levels that for many are below the cost of production. Holding grain unhedged has been a losing proposition since late 2023 and producers that were holding stocks in anticipation of a summer rally have been disappointed.
Official US corn exports through June total 1.882 billion bushels. US Census export numbers continue to exceed the export inspection data from the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS). Estimated official corn exports through July are just over 2.1 billion bushels, leaving only 124 million bushels to be shipped in August to meet USDA’s forecast. USDA will likely raise exports by 25-40 million bushels.