Market Perspectives – August 30, 2018

U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

U.S. Drought Monitor Weather Forecast: Over the week beginning Tuesday August 28, the Midwestern states are expected to receive the highest precipitation, including northern Missouri, which has been plagued by extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought conditions. Temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s (F), and even the 100s in places, across most of the central and southern tier of the U.S. The Northeast will begin with temperatures in the 90s but is forecast to cool into the 70s and 80s by the end of the Labor Day weekend. Daytime highs in the 70s and 80s are also forecast across much of the northern tier. Southern Florida and the central Appalachians are forecast to receive up to 3 inches of rainfall, while most of the West and the High Plains are expecting a quarter of an inch or less, with no rain forecast for much of the region.

Looking further ahead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6- to 10-day outlook (September 2-6), the probability of dry conditions is highest in the Northwest including Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana, while wet conditions are most likely across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. During this period, below-average temperatures may be seen over the much of the forecasted wet areas while above-average temperatures are forecast for most of the contiguous U.S., especially the eastern half.

Looking two weeks out (September 4-10), the likelihood of above-average temperatures is highest in central to southern California and in the eastern third of the contiguous U.S. The probability of below-average temperatures is highest across Montana. The probability of above-average precipitation is highest over a swath of the central U.S. stretching northeast from New Mexico to eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin, with the highest probability of dryness now expected across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.

Follow this link to view current U.S. and international weather patterns and future outlook: Weather and Crop Bulletin.