Market Perspectives August 30, 2013

Country News

Argentina: Argentine farmers are anticipating China’s potential consent to the importation of the last remaining unapproved strain of GMO corn grown in the Pampas corn belt, according to Reuters. There is an extra sense of urgency to the approval process for strain MIR-162 on the part of Argentina, as Brazilian GMO strains are also waiting for approval from the Chinese government.

Algeria: The UN has indicated that Algerian grain imports are set to decline by 3.2 percent this year after an increase in domestic production, reports Bloomberg News.Total grain imports may drop from the 2012/13 level of 9.26 MMT to 8.96 MMT in 2013/14. Domestic grain production may increase by as much as 9.1 percent over last year and total some 5.47 MMT. This year’s production was 27 percent better than the five-year average, and includes some 1.75 MMT of barley.

Brazil: The Brazilian Trade Ministry is reporting that corn and ethanol exports increased during the first three weeks of August, after a drop in the value of the real against the dollar, according to Reuters. Ethanol exports have totaled some 407.8 million liters so far in August, which is the highest volume for any month this year, and an improvement over the 350.5 million liters shipped in July. In comparison, only some 313.9 million liters of ethanol were shipped in August 2012.

Canada: According to RMI Analytics, the Canadian barley harvest may be higher than government forecasts had earlier indicated, reports Bloomberg News. Barley production may exceed 9 MMT this year, which exceeds Statistics Canada’searlier estimate of 8.8 MMT. Much of the crop is in good condition and should be ready for harvest in roughly four weeks, while some areas are presently ready to be harvested.

European Union: Hot and dry conditions across Central Europe have forced the European Commission’s crop monitoring unit to reduce the average yield estimate for corn grown there, reports Reuters. The revised estimate has EU corn production for 2013 totaling 6.97 MT/hectare, which is down from the 7.22 MT/hectare predicted previously, but is almost 15 percent above the 2012 yield. The five-year average for EU corn production stands at 6.99 MT/hectare.

South Africa: Yellow corn production may exceed white corn production for the first time in 19 years, according to Bloomberg News. It is believed that South Africa will produce 5.93 MMT of yellow corn and 5.58 MMT of white corn this year. A dearth of rain in the white corn growing regions of South Africa has led to a decrease in white corn production.