Market Perspectives – August 27, 2020

Country News

Argentina: Farmer selling of old crop corn has slowed and a farm survey by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicates the 2020/21 area planted to corn will be 1.6 percent smaller. The grain inspectors’ union will conduct a 36-hour strike starting tomorrow to protest the lack of wage negotiations. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Brazil: Conab forecasts the country will produce 112.9 MMT of corn for 2020/21 versus 102.1 MMT in 2019/20. The second season 2019/20 corn crop is now 86 percent harvested. ANEC lowered its corn export forecast for August to 6.79 MMT versus 7.25 MMT a week ago. The export pace has slowed in August but remains a record. Meanwhile, the B3 exchange posted a new high for corn at BR61/bag (USD181.65/MT) and the government is waiving the import tariff to temper inflation. (AgriCensus)

China: The fall army worm is moving faster than expected and for the first time has been found in Liaoning province in the northeastern corn belt. Social media coverage of damaged stored corn caused prices to spike to a new five-year high. The government raised the minimum price for auctioned corn this week and for the first time, not all of it sold. All of the 2015 corn sold but only 87 percent of the 2016 corn and just 50 percent of the 2018 reserve was purchased. (Refinitiv; FarmLead; JCI)

EU: Grain trade association COCERAL reduced its EU barley production forecast to 62.5 MMT due to lower yields in France, and revised corn lower by 2.2 MMT to 64.6 MMT. The average EU corn yield was cut 2.4 percent to 8.01 MT/Ha. France Agrimer says corn conditions declined again to 62 percent good/excellent, a 3 percent drop from a week earlier.  Thus far, August is the second hottest on record following the driest July in 60 years. Meanwhile, the rise in U.S. corn futures forces Brussels to remove its €0.26/MT import levy. (Refinitiv, World Grain)

Tunisia: The government procurement agency ODC bought 75 KMT of barley for September/October delivery at $208/MT CFR. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee in its seasonal 7th forecast cut estimated white corn output by -1.13 percent but raised yellow corn production by 1.48 percent with the net being 15.536 MMT, an 0.05 percent reduction from its 6th forecast. That is a smaller reduction than estimated by the trade. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange has initiated a second-tier corn futures contract to address quality issues. (AgriCensus; CEC)

Ukraine: Corn prices are sharply higher on concerns that hot, dry weather has hurt the crop. (AgriCensus)

Vietnam: An over-supply of grain is causing corn buyers to cancel 240 KMT to 540 KMT worth of purchases, though higher world prices keeps other trades in place. South American corn for August/September delivery was over-bought relative to demand. Sellers are willing to buy back since prices have risen about 17 percent, but the situation has the Philippines considering buying corn from Vietnam, or traders could sell it to China. (Reuters; AgriCensus)