Market Perspectives – August 13, 2020

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) says corn production this season exceeded soybean production for the first time in 20 years. The Banco Central de la República says corn stocks were at a record high 14 MMT at the end of July. Meanwhile, farmer selling of new crop corn has dipped over economic concerns. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: Conab forecasts 2019/20 corn production at 102.14 MMT, a 1.5 MMT increase from its earlier estimate. Corn exports were left unchanged. The Foreign Trade Secretariat indicates corn exports hit 2 MMT in the first week of August, exceeding soybean shipments for the period. Daily average corn shipments are up 22 percent from year earlier levels. The National Grain Exporter Association (ANEC) says July corn exports at 5.07 MMT are 33 percent higher, though nearly 400 KMT lower than the group’s earlier estimate. ANEC pegs August corn exports at 6.32 MMT. (Refinitiv; Reuters)

China: The Chinese Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) raised corn demand in 2020/21 by 3.5 percent to 183 MMT on increased feed demand, but industrial demand will be lower due to high corn prices. According to the National Grain Trade Centre, the latest auction of Chinese corn was again 100 percent subscribed with mostly 2015 corn being sold, but the price was 2.2 percent lower than a week earlier. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

EU: With rainfall at a quarter or less of normal levels, France has had the driest July in six decades and it will adversely impact the corn crop. The resulting price differential means the extra levy will be reapplied to imports of corn and sorghum at a rate of €5.48/MT. (Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

Iran: The government’s SLAL is tendering for 200 KMT of corn. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The Ukrainian Grain Association lowered its 2020 corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT to 36.4 MMT due to dry weather conditions. It is still a record output. By contrast, ProAgro increased its estimate by 370 KMT to 38.86 MMT of corn production this year. (Refinitiv)

Russia: The agriculture consultancy SovEcon has raised its forecast for barley exports by 500 KMT to a total of 80.9 MMT. (Refinitiv)

Taiwan: MFIG is purchasing 65 KMT of corn for October-December shipment. (AgriCensus)

Vietnam: Imports of corn for delivery in August-September will top 3 MMT. (AgriCensus)