Market Perspectives – April 29, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The government is considering increasing the current 12 percent tax on corn exports to protect the domestic market against rising international prices. The law allows up to a 15 percent export duty on cereals. Interior Trade Secretary Paula Espanol said, “Let’s not pay for food here like in the rest of the world,” Other policy options are also being considered including export quotas and reserve requirements. Agriculture Minister Luis Basterra said farmers need to increase production but Jorge Chemes of the rural entity CRA said there must first be trust between the government and farmers.

Farmer selling of corn has slowed. This year’s corn harvest is at half the pace it achieved a year ago but the Rosario Grains Exchange raised its estimate for this year’s crop to 50 MMT with Cordoba Province expected to hit a record harvest. Separately, the barley crop is expected to reach 4.3 MMT and the Rosario Board of Trade says sorghum production will almost double to 3.5 MMT. (Reuters; AgriCensus; Successful Farming)

Brazil: South American crop expert Michael Cordonnier lowered his estimate of the corn crop by 3 MMT to 100 MMT with a neutral to lower bias moving forward. The Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB) says farmers are holding their grain or demanding high prices. In Mato Grosso, corn touched Real 77.6/60 kg ($237.83/MT), a 4.3 percenet increase in a week and 108.3 percent higher than a year ago.  (Soybean & Corn Advisor; SPGlobal)

EU: Weekly corn imports hit a marketing year low of 65 KMT. (AgriCensus)

Mexico: Grupo Consultor De Mercados Agrícolas says drought conditions could reduce the 2020/21 corn crop by 5.4 MM (-20 percent) from the current forecast of 27 MMT. The consultancy increased its prediction of corn imports to 17.6 MMT. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI), the country’s largest feed maker, purchased 137 KMT of feed corn with half charged at $312.30/MT C&F and the other at $304.29/MT, both assessed an additional $1.50/MT for extra port stops. Meanwhile, the Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought 203 KMT of feed corn. Both organizations tendered for a collective 417 KMT and booked corn for August-September delivery. KFA bought 133 KMT of corn, Kocopia purchased 50 KMT privately from Posco, and Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased corn privately from Al Ghurair. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Taiwan: After a month’s break, MFIG purchased 65 KMT of Argentinian corn for July shipment. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Barley production in 2021/22 is expected to remain at the 8.2 MMT level of last year but corn production is forecast to increase 19 percent to 33.5 MMT and corn exports will rise 15 percent to a total of 27.6 MMT. The Ukraine grin traders’ union (UGA) says corn exports could hit 30 MMT, versus 24 MMT last year. Farmers are shifting their preference toward corn production. Corn planting is 7 percent complete at 386,000 hectares and weekly corn exports were 630 KMT. The consultancy APK-Inform says corn export prices are up $7/MT in the past week to $262-$267/MT FOB, and barley bids are up $8/MT to $235-$242/MT FOB.  (FAS GAIN; Reuters; AgriCensus)