Market Perspectives – April 19, 2018

Country News

Argentina: The Rosario Board of Trade kept its estimate of the corn crop unchanged at 32 MMT and an average yield of 5.98 MT/ha. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: Mato Grosso’s Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) says that improved weather in Brazil’s largest producing state has increased the corn production estimate by 2 percent to 26 MMT. However, that is still below last year’s record crop of 30.47 MMT. Consequently, exports by the state during 2017/18 will be down 23 percent to 15.7 MMT. (AgriCensus)

China: Three consecutive auctions of corn has sent pricing sentiment lower. Next week’s auction will likely take the April total of sales to 20 MMT. (AgriCensus)

France: Despite improved weather conditions in the first half of April, the 73 percent good to excellent rating for barley is the lowest at this stage of the campaign over the past four years. Barley production is expected to hit 12.1 MMT. (FranceAgriMer)

Japan: Imports of ETBE made from U.S. corn-based ethanol will be allowed to supply up to 44 percent of the 217 million gallons of imported ethanol used to make ETBE. The carbon reduction requirement was increased to 55 percent and U.S. corn-based ethanol qualified with that higher benchmark. (World Grain)

Kenya: The fall armyworm is inflicting losses with 20 percent of two million bags of maize destroyed. In its caterpillar stage, it can eat 80 different plant species including maize, sorghum and barley. Because it burrows inside of the cob, it is difficult to detect and is impervious to many pesticides. A broad-spectrum pesticide can be applied but is very expensive. Local experts have traveled to Brazil to learn management methods. GMO maize is a solution but is controversial. (The Star; Daily Nation)

Singapore: The market is quiet as Asian buyers wait for the price of corn to decline. Offers are heard at $223-225/MT but feed wheat can be obtained at $219-222.50/MT. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Feed buyers are waiting for corn prices to soften by $4-5/MT and so there is no tender this week. Buyers are interested in acquiring corn at $220/MT. (AgriCensus)

Tanzania: Corn production in 2018-19 is forecast at 5.25 MMT, a 2 percent reduction from last year’s 5.35 MMT. White corn supplies the population with 80 percent of its calories and 35 percent of usable protein. Export certificates are difficult to obtain from the government and so sales are largely opportunistic at the border, and illegal. (USDA/FAS GAIN Report)

Tunisia: The state grain buying agency Office de Cereales (OdC) tendered this week for 25 KMT of barley with a June shipment and the lowest offer was at $229.69/MT. At its last tender in March, OdC bought 25 KMT of barley at $246.24 CIF. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Improved weather conditions in the first half of April enabled 828,000 hectares of barley to be sown, but that compares with 1.5 million hectares at this stage last year. (Reuters)

Uruguay: The 2017/18 corn crop is expected to fall to between 200-220 KMT due to a lack of rainfall. (AgriCensus)

Vietnam: Feed demand is growing at a 3 percent annual rate largely due to 5-10 percent annual increases in aquaculture production. Corn imports are expected to hit 11 MMT, up 2 MMT from the current year. (USDA/FAS)