Market Perspectives – April 14, 2022

Country News

Argentina: Frost has damaged the corn crop and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange categorized just 20 percent of the corn crop as good/excellent, versus 21 percent a week ago. A shortage of diesel fuel and a trucker’s strike are causing problems but with about 17 percent of the corn area harvested, most estimates of total output are below 50 MMT, versus USDA’s 53 MMT forecast. (Bloomberg; Reuters)

Brazil: The exporters association ANEC expects 850 KMT of corn exports in April, versus 60 KMT forecast a week ago. (Reuters)

China: Planting of corn could be delayed as millions of workers try to return to their farms after doing temporary jobs in the city where coronavirus lockdowns limit movement. A total of 1.02 MMT of corn was purchased from the U.S., two-thirds old crop and a third for 2022/23. (Reuters)

EU: The French Ministry of Agriculture reports that the area planted to corn will be 10 percent less but a 24 percent improvement in yield will result in an 11.7 percent increase in production to 15.4 MMT. In a similar vein, barley area will fall by 12 percent, but normal weather will increase yield by 25 percent and lead to a crop almost 10 percent larger at 11.4 MMT. (Reuters)

Korea: Corn consumption in 2022/23 could reach 12 MMT, a 6 percent increase due to increased feed demand. NOFI purchased 207 KMT of corn at $378.16/MT for delivery in July-August. (FAS GAIN; AgriCensus)

Russia: The export duty on corn for April 13 through April 19 was increased by $4.80/MT to $70.60/MT and was unchanged for barley at $75.40/MT. (Reuters)

Ukraine: Corn exports could fall by more than a quarter to 17 MMT according to Deputy Agriculture Minister Roman Rusakov. With almost 100,000 hectares a week getting planted, spring barley now covers 418,900 hectares, roughly 31 percent less than the area planted last year at this time. (Reuters; The Jerusalem Post)