Market Perspectives – September 6, 2018

Country News

Argentina: Physical bids and offers in the spot market have disappeared as the trade tries to calculate the impact of the new corn export tax on both new sales and the flurry of export registrations from last week, plus the evolving peso/dollar relationship. The so-called retention is 4 pesos for every U.S. dollar of corn exported, or approximately 10.5 percent. Meanwhile, the CGT trade union blockaded Rosario’s port complex on 4 September to protest worker dismissals as part of a commercial restructuring. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: Few physical indications are being quoted as the trade tries to calculate the impact of the export tax on Argentina’s competitiveness, and the new freight tax hike. Brazil’s freight tax varies by type of cargo but Sergio Mendes of the grain group Anec says it will add $818 million in cost to an industry that earns only one percent margins. The harvesting of the second crop (safrinha) of corn is at 95 percent. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Canada: The drought has caused hay prices in some areas to double and forage shortfalls could send cattle to feedlots early. Feed barley prices are up 30 percent. An early frost in Manitoba could hurt the still developing silage corn. Nitrate sent by the injured plants to the leaves could simply accumulate instead of converting to protein, which would make the plants poisonous for cattle to eat. (Bloomberg; FarmLead)

China: The corn auction surged to 2.6 MMT with the price climbing to ¥1,557 ($227.80)/MT. Total sales out of the reserve are now at 70 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Finland: The ProAgria Rural Advisory Centre says that hot, dry weather will result in the lowest grain harvest of the millennium and a third straight year of poor harvest. The Natural Resources Institute Finland says the grain harvest will be the smallest since 1987. Barley production is at a 30-year low. (Bloomberg; Helsinki Times)

Jordan: Rising barley prices forced Jordan to pay 50 cents more in its recent tender. (AgriCensus)

Kenya: The Anti-Corruption Committee found widespread corruption in the delivery of last year’s maize crop with 20 percent of it delivered by traders instead of farmers, and 25 percent originating from Uganda instead of Kenya. A total of 16 officials have been arrested. (WPI)

Ukraine: Initial corn harvesting indicates higher yields this year and production could hit a record 30.3 MMT. The decline in domestic feed corn prices have given hope for exports, especially considering Argentina’s corn export tax. (Agritel; WPI)