Market Perspectives – September 30, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 50.5 MMT of corn was harvested for 2020/21 and expects a record 55 MMT crop for 2021/22.  New crop corn planting has reached 8.5 percent. The country faces $620 million in export losses due to low Parana River water levels. (Reuters)

Brazil: The government cut taxes on corn imports for 90 days and farmers started selling their crop, causing farm basis levels to fall 10 percent. IMEA says corn imports hit 1.2 MMT from January to August. Corn exports will reach 2.525 MMT in September, down 254,000 MT in one week according to Anec. AgRural reports that corn moisture has improved. Center-south summer corn planting reached 26 percent complete as of September 23, in line with a year ago. Inpasa granted a license for the largest corn ethanol capacity in Brazil. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

China: The National Grain and Oils Information says corn prices are falling as a bumper crop is harvested. Futures prices have fallen 13 percent from record highs in May. Analyst Li Xigui says, “Corn prices are probably going to hit bottom levels between end of December and Chinese Spring Festival…” Stocks of feed wheat and rice are plentiful, but grain imports will include 20 MMT corn, down from 29 MMT in 2020/21. Sorghum imports will be 10 MMT, up from 8.5 MMT in the previous year. Barley imports are pegged at 12 MMT, versus 11.4 MMT last year. DDG imports will be about the same at 200 KMT. Pig prices are falling and alternative feed ingredients are being promoted. The low tariff import quota level on corn in 2022 will remain the same as in 2021. Meanwhile, the cap on energy use by Beijing threatens the ability of farmers to harvest the new crop corn. (Reuters; Bloomberg)

Kazakhstan: Despite high heat this season, the corn crop output will be 1.1 MMT, up nearly 15 percent for the year. (MARS)

Philippines: The Philippine Association of Feed Millers has asked the government to review its three-tiered corn import duty, especially the 50 percent charge on above quota non-ASEAN product. They argue that without an adjustment, animal protein costs to consumers will skyrocket. (Reuters)

Russia: The barley export tax was raised to $53.50/MT from $35.30/MT. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee pegs this year’s corn crop at 16.21 MMT (8.609 MMT white; 7.602 MMT Yellow), a nearly 6 percent increase over a year earlier. The use of GM maize over the past two decades has boosted South African benefits by $695 million. (Reuters)

South Korea: KFA tendered for 138 KMT of corn and bought 60 KMT of corn privately from Olam for December delivery. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: MFIG tendered to buy 65 KMT of corn from Brazil for delivery in December. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The corn harvest is at 4 percent with 1.1 MMT gathered according to the agriculture ministry. (AgriCensus)