Market Perspectives – September 27, 2018

Country News

Algeria: The state grain buying agency OAIC purchased barley in a flurry of buying activity. (AgriCensus)

Argentina: Rains brought relief to parched land and enabled corn plantings to hit 4.5 percent. Exporters have asked for more time to pay the new export tax on corn. (AgriCensus)

China: The average auction price for corn fell even as 75 percent of the offered volume was purchased. By contrast, the Heilongjiang auction saw volumes plunge to just 19.5 percent of the corn offered. Collectively, the auctions this year will hit 90-100 MMT. (AgriCensus; Xinhua)

Guatemala: Corn consumption is rising but production is falling. About 40 percent of the land area is planted to corn but it has been falling due to depressed prices, higher production costs, and competition from more profitable crops including contraband. (USDA/FAS GAIN)

Jordan: The state buying agency reopened the tender for barley imports. (AgriCensus)

Mexico: Production of sorghum will be 100 KMT smaller and imports will fall from 2 MMT last year to just 350 KMT in 2018/19 as livestock sectors switch to less expensive yellow corn. (USDA/FAS GAIN)

Russia: The barley output forecast was cut again to less than 17 MMT, its lowest level in five years. Barley exports in July, the first month of the 2018/19 marketing year, were 638.4 KMT or 4.5 percent less than in July 2017. (AgriCensus; UkrAgroConsult)

South Africa: Corn plantings are off to a fast start due to warm/dry weather, but overall production will fall by 2 percent with yellow corn rather than white bearing most of the drop. Meanwhile, corn prices struggle as the export market dries up. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Turkey: Despite the dual burdens of debt and a falling currency valuation, the Turkish Grain Board will tender for more feed barley. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Pressured by competition from the U.S., Ukrainian corn slid below $160/MT and could hit $150/MT in the coming weeks. The corn must be exported, and prices will have to drop to make it happen. In fact, exports to the EU are up 2.8 percent to 1.19 MMT. Sales for the rest of the calendar year will struggle. (Platts SP Global)