Market Perspectives – September 24, 2020

Country News

Algeria: The state grains agency OAIC issued a tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 tons of barley and purchased from Germany at $220/MT. (Reuters)

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says the new season corn crop will be 3 MMT smaller due to dry conditions and now forecasts production at 47 MMT. Soybeans were expected to gain planted area on corn, but dry conditions are making the planting of late season corn more attractive. Meanwhile, farmer selling of corn is at a four-month low as domestic prices race past FOB export values. (Reuters; Refinitiv; AgriCensus)

Brazil: Spring rains are setting conditions for corn planting in Parana, with progress at 33 percent and completion expected in mid-October. Brazil’s overall corn planting is 15 percent complete. First crop corn area is expected to be 5-6 percent greater than last year. However, farmers are withholding old crop corn causing commercial defaults in supply contracts. (Refinitiv)

Canada: In the first six weeks of the new marketing year, sales of barley to China are quadruple the level a year ago due to Australia being blocked as a supplier. (FarmLead)

China: Corn imports are at a four-month high. (AgriCensus)

EU: Strategie Grains projects this season’s corn output at 64.9 MMT, a 2.5 MMT reduction from its August estimate and roughly equal to last year’s level of 64.5 MMT. The French harvest is 4 percent completed. Romanian farmers are holding back their corn, forcing commercial brokers into a default rate estimated at 10-15 percent. (Refinitiv; AgriCensus)

Japan: The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries reports that the ratio of corn in animal feed was at 49.7 percent in July, an 0.7 percent increase from July of 2019. The sorghum share was 1.5 percent and barley represented 3.5 percent of content. (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia: A tender for the acquisition of 540 KMT of feed barley for Nov-Dec delivery was completed at $225/MT. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: The domestic corn price has been capped as it nears parity with imported corn. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: A break in corn prices prompted a 400 KMT purchase of corn at $229/MT. Meanwhile, MFG bought 69 KMT of corn from Olam at $227.47/MT. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: The government procurement agency ODC purchased 50 KMT of barley for Oct-Dec shipment. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Barley exports to China in the first two months of the new marketing year are nearly double last year’s level. Overall barley exports are at 2.65 MMT, according to the agriculture ministry. Barley is fungible and so China’s punitive 80.5 percent tariff on Australian origin has caused the latter to ship its product to Saudi Arabia while Ukraine, a normal supplier to the Saudis, instead fills the Aussie void in the Middle Kingdom. However, the Ukrainian crop is 18 percent smaller than the prior year, which has caused prices to jump 20 percent since July. Chinese barley consumers are paying a heavy price for the substitution of sources.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s corn prices are also up 20 percent as the harvest is reflecting lower yields due to drought. Some industry estimates place the crop at 30 MMT, versus a USDA estimate of 38.5 MMT. More than half the corn crop is usually exported to China. Export sales to date are 619 KMT, down nearly 70 percent from the 1.93 MMT year on year. (FarmLead; Refinitiv)