Market Perspectives – September 19, 2019

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that rain is bringing relief and the corn crop is being planted. Limited capacity at Atlantic ports has corn export options blunted. (AgriCensus)

Canada: Weather has increased the amount of pre-germination barley and this means more could go to feed than the malting market as intended. (FarmLead)

China: Buying is slow on the corn auction but improved to 263 KMT. The fall army worm threat is over for this crop season as it has gone into hibernation but it will be back next year. The pest is now established in the country and Pan Wenbo of the agriculture ministry’s planting administration worries that it could move next year into the main corn growing area in the northeast. Some areas lost 5 percent of their production this year due to the bug. Meanwhile, Wu Tianlong of the Rural Economy Research Center contends that there are only 56 MMT of corn left in state reserves and believes that the 10 percent ethanol mandate for 2020 will be reduced as a result. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

EU: Hot, dry weather caused a reduced forecast for the corn crop, falling 3.8 percent to 7.63 MMT. The spring barley crop forecast was also reduced but by 0.2 percent for an output of 4.10 MMT. (EU JRC MARS)

South Korea: Corn imports may be reduced as African swine fever was discovered and pigs are being culled. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: The government has joined the crowded market in a tender for barley. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Poor demand has slowed Q4 corn export prospects even as yields from early harvesting efforts are on the high side. Yields are hitting 6 MT/Ha. (95 bushels/acre), which is 8 percent better than last year. The Sizov Report predicts a 36.3 MMT corn crop, slightly larger than USDA’s forecast of 36 MMT. (AgriCensus; Successful Farming)

Vietnam: Corn imports hit 1.8 MMT but African swine fever is expected to reduce demand from feed millers. (AgriCensus; S&P Global)

Zimbabwe: The Civil Protection Unit says the drought has halved the size of the corn crop. The government bought 150 KMT of corn from South Africa, which is just one-fifth the amount tendered. The government is negotiating a supply agreement with Tanzania. (Bloomberg)