Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook
Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 183.6 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast and up 6.3 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from the previous year. Compared to the August estimates, yields in major producing states were raised in Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yields decreased in Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio. Ending stocks in the 2024/25 WASDE were reduced by 16 million bushels to 2.057 billion bushels on a drop in beginning stocks and an increase in production but no changes to demand.
Sorghum yields were raised in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota and decreased in Texas. This resulted in an increase in production from 279 million bushels to 302 million bushels. Sorghum exports were raised by 25 million bushels from the August report, so projected ending stocks declined 2 million bushels.
Soybean production for beans is forecast at a record high of 4.59 billion bushels, down slightly from the previous forecast but up 10 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average a record high 53.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 2.6 bushels from 2023. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 86.3 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from 2023. 2024/25 ending stocks declined 10 million bushels on a 8 million bushel drop in supply and a 2 million bushel increase residual use.
As overall beer consumption in the U.S. slides to its lowest level since the 1970s according to data from the Brewers Association, U.S. Plains states face a huge glut of barley. Americans are buying less beer, and frequenting fewer craft breweries that use even more malt per beverage. The most-recent U.S. crop report showed the number of acres planted with barley have fallen by 22% compared with a year ago. In North Dakota, the No. 2 producing state behind Idaho, acres nearly halved from a year ago. Supplies of barley that farmers have in storage on farms are up 51% from last year and are the highest since 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. U.S. malt barley prices, which farmers arrange before planting, were around $7 per bushel last year and under $5 per bushel this year depending on location.
Severe drought is causing delays in first crop corn planting in Brazil and raises the possibility of lower acreage than originally planned. Corn planting is progressing slowly in the south of Brazil while producers are waiting for rain before they plant soybeans. Large parts of South America have experienced significant rainfall deficits over the past three months, leading to “exceptional drought” over much of the central and northern parts of the continent. CEMADEN says the Central-West, part of the Southeast, and Northeast regions are the most affected by the water deficit, with more than 100 consecutive days without precipitation, especially in Goiás and parts of the states of Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. Some of the worst affected areas haven’t seen a drop of rain in over 150 days. In normal years, the country would already be in the rainy season, which usually starts around September 1. However, weather forecasts show no chance for rain until the last-half of the month, at the earliest, and possibly not until early October. Soybean yields shouldn’t be impacted by late planting but if harvest runs late, it could reduce second-crop corn acreage and make a late crop more susceptible to drought.