Market Perspectives – October 5, 2023

Country News

Algeria: State grain buyer ONAB tendered for 88 KMT of corn and 30 KMT of barley and purchased 60 KMT and 30 KMT, respectively. (AgriCensus)

Argentina: The Rosario Grains Exchange reports that the core crop production area has received less rain than needed. (AgriCensus)

Australia: Trade Minister Don Farrell says China is removing the barrier to importing Australian hay. (Reuters)

Brazil: CONAB reports that 23 percent of the first corn crop is planted with 71 percent seeded Parana and up to 55 percent in the ground in Rio Grande do Sul. Anec says a record amount of corn will be exported in October. IMEA increased its corn export estimate. Inmet notes concern that the Center-West and Southeast have received below average rainfall. (Refinitiv; AgriCensus)

China: The corn harvest has begun and output is likely to surpass last year’s production. Corn imports from Brazil are arriving on top of a large domestic crop, causing prices to fall. The import tariff for corn was left unchanged for 2024. (Refinitiv; AgriCensus)

EU: FranceAgriMer reports that the maize harvest is advancing and trade association COCERAL lowered its barley production estimate by 3.3 percent to 54.7 MMT and lowered its corn production estimate by 0.8 percent to 60.8 MMT. (WorldGrain)

Iran: State-owned feed importer SLAL purchased at least 120 KMT of corn in a tender. (Refinitiv)

Russia: The EU’s October MARS report lowered its estimate for all barley output by 4 percent to 21.932 MMT and increased the maize estimate by 12 percent to a record 16.967 MMT. For October 4-10, the barley export tax was increased but the corn export tax was lowered. (AgriCensus)

Türkiye: The EU MARS report increased its estimate for barley production by 3 percent to 2.72 MMT, and the corn output estimate by 5 percent to 9.79 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Traders say corn purchases from China may reach several hundred thousand tons and require 10 – 12 Panamax vessels. Ten vessels have arrived thus far. Corn exports thus far in MY 2023/24 are at 2.7 MMT and barley exports are at 625 KMT. Overall grain exports are down 24 percent, year-on-year. (Refinitiv; Reuters; AgriCensus)