Market Perspectives – October 26, 2023

Country News

Argentina: Corn planting continues to be delayed due to the lack of rainfall. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: Anec reduced its estimate for corn exports during the month of October. Conab says low prices and El Nino could reduce corn planting by 5 percent. The crop is already expected to be down 9.5 percent year on year due to heat and drought. The government is in talks to obtain $2 billion in funding to convert degraded pastureland into row crops for corn and soybeans. Water levels on the Rio Negro river, a main tributary to the Amazon, is at its lowest level since 1902. (AgriCensus; Bloomberg)

EU: The latest MARS report has lowered the expected yield for this year’s maize crop to 7.13 MT/hectare, down from 7.26 MT/hectare in its earlier estimate. (Refinitiv)

Russia: IKAR raised its estimate for this year’s corn crop to 16 MT/hectare from last month’s prediction of 15.8 MT/hectare. (Reuters)

Ukraine: The 2023/24 corn crop will be 30.7 MMT, up 17 percent year on year. Prices are rising amid complex logistics and tax upon inspection. The first shipment of barley to China this marketing year has been loaded. The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority published notice that the movement of vessels to and from the grain corridor are suspended from October 26, 2023. A report that the Ukrainian military had stopped all shipping, citing an “explosive threat” from increased Russian aviation activity, was later refuted by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov. (AgriCensus; FAS GAIN; Refinitiv)