Market Perspectives – October 25, 2018

Country News

Argentina: The corn production estimate for 2018/19 was raised by 0.5 MMT to 41.5 MMT based on expanded planting area more than offsetting lower yields. Separately, protests are gearing up as the Federation of Argentine Transporters (FETRA) has called for a strike seeking higher tariffs, and the Argentina Rural Confederation is urging protests in opposition to the government’s export taxes on grain. (USDA/FAS/GAIN; World-Grain)

Brazil: Fast planting and beneficial moisture will help raise corn yields, though too much moisture in southern Brazil must be watched for its impact. The recent increase in corn prices has caused shipments using the country’s northern arc route to become uncompetitive. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Canada: About 29 percent (2.38 MMT) of the 1.64 million acres planted to barley remain to be harvested. Feed barley prices are falling under pressure from newly harvested product plus pressure from U.S. corn. Oat exports this year are at 449.7 KMT (+16 percent, year-over-year) and barley exports are at 295.6 KMT (+13 percent, year-over-year). (FarmLead)

China: Research by the Dalian exchange indicates that farmers in Heilongjiang province are planting more corn after finding the government’s CNY200/mu ($432/ha) subsidy inadequate for switching to soybeans. Last Friday’s corn auction saw a 30 percent increase in sales, but the price dipped. Meanwhile, the latest auction saw corn sales rise to 81 percent of offerings and the setting of two more auction dates. Separately, sorghum imports plunged in September by 76.9 percent and officials have told hog farmers to stop feeding kitchen waste as that may have contributed to the outbreak of Asian Swine Fever. Corn imports for the month were 40 KMT. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Jordan: Feed barley prices are pressured higher as the state grain buying agency paid $274.50/MT for 60 KMT delivered first half of February. The Russian feed barley was priced $2.50/MT above the previous purchase. (AgriCensus)

Russia: Smaller acreage sown and extreme dryness early in the season has lowered estimates for corn and barley production to 11.8 MMT and 16.8 MMT, respectively. (USDA/FAS; World-Grain)

Tunisia: State buying agency Office des Cereales tendered for 100 KMT of feed barley. It previously purchased 50 KMT of feed barley for November delivery at $262.67/MT CFR. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The agriculture ministry reported that 2.5 MMT of barley and 2.3 MMT of corn have been exported. Corn bids into February and March were heard at $170-$172/MT. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Vietnam: A new 240 KMT/year feed mill was opened in southern Vietnam, but corn buyers were forced to washout 140 KMT in purchases as demand slackened and stocks are on the increase. (AgriCensus)