Market Perspectives – October 24, 2014

Country News

Argentina: Argentina’s Economic Ministry has approved the export of an additional 500,000 MT of corn from the 2013/14 season, according to Reuters.

Brazil: Brazil’s main grain producing regions are expected to get widespread rains between October 28 and November 6, which would end several months of damaging dry weather, reports Reuters.

China: The Chinese government will likely stay the course and stockpile large amounts of corn for a third year in a row, according to Reuters. The government will probably add some 40 MMT of corn following the country’s bumper harvest.

Kenya: The Cereal Growers Association has announced that another outbreak of Maize Lethal Necrosis has the potential to reduce Kenyan corn production by 30 percent as farmers are increasingly switching to other crops, according to Bloomberg News. Up to 70 percent of Kenyan corn farmers could be impacted by the virus. Kenya produced 2.8 MMT of corn through the end of the marketing year in June 2014, while consumption is expected to increase by 2.7 percent to 3.75 MMT.

South Africa: Yellow corn for December delivery fell this week to $179.29/MT, reports Bloomberg News.

Vietnam: Vietnamese corn millers have canceled import shipments following a large drop in global grain prices, according to Reuters. Vietnamese buyers are reneging on some 200,000 MT of corn and there is a fear that these cancellations could drive corn prices that have dropped by 25-35 percent in the past three months even lower. Vietnam has doubled its corn imports in the past five years to total 2.2 MMT in 2013/14. Millers are currently being offered Brazilian corn at $200/MT for Panamax cargoes, which is a steep reduction from the $275/MT many agreed to pay three months ago. U.S. Gulf corn is currently being offered at $184.96/MT for October, which is down from $224/MT in June following a record harvest of 367.68 MMT this year.