Market Perspectives – October 15, 2020

Country News

Algeria: The Office Algerien Interprofessionnel des Cereales (OAIC) has tendered for corn and barley to be shipped in November. (AgriCensus)

Argentina: Corn planting, which started in September, has progressed to 20.8 percent of the 6.3 million hectares expected. However, drought conditions, especially in the north, are driving production forecasts lower. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects growers to harvest 47 MMT of corn in 2020/21, a 3 MMT reduction from last season. The La Nina climate event could also impact the planting of the second corn crop in December/January. The La Nina in 2010/11 adversely impacted corn yields for two years in a row. (Gro Intelligence; AgriCensus)

Brazil: In contrast with Argentina, dry weather in Brazil has not yet led to lower production estimates. However, the areas of dryness could result in a delay in planting the safrinha (second) corn crop, which is the source of most exports. At this juncture, CONAB is projecting corn production at 105.2 MMT, a 2 percent increase over the previous season but almost 5 MMT less than USDA’s estimate. (Brownfield)

China: The price of corn on the Dalian futures exchange is at record highs ($380.70/MT; $9.67/bushel – January 2021 contract) due to the slow pace of harvest and questionable supplies. This is leading to speculation that the country’s corn import TRQ will need to be raised. Imports of barley from Canada are tracking three times greater than a year ago. China’s agriculture ministry says corn production will be higher this year despite weather concerns. (Reuters; FarmLead)

EU: The French corn harvest has reached the halfway point and FranceAgriMer lowered the corn production estimate by 600 KMT from a month earlier and took 500 KMT off the barley estimate, now at 13.5 MMT. Barley output will be down 23 percent from a year earlier, but corn production will be 6 percent above year ago levels despite dry conditions due to the expanded area that was sown. Strategie Grain analysts forecast EU and UK corn production at an estimated 62.7 MMT, down from 64.9 MMT one month ago. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Iran: The state agency State Livestock Affairs Logistics is tendering for 200 KMT of barley. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Some private corn purchase deals are occurring but KFA bought 131 KMT of corn in a tender for February delivery. The price was $247.69/MT. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: The Maize Industry Procurement Association purchased 65 KMT of corn at $220/MT over March for December/January shipment. (AgriCensus)

Thailand: The Thailand Feed Mill Association (TFMA) has tendered for barley as part of its 2021 purchasing campaign. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: With harvesting one-third completed, 8.3 MMT of corn has been hauled in but corn prices are being impacted by farmers defaulting on their deliveries. APK-Inform forecasts 28.5 MMT of corn exports this marketing year, which is 2 MMT less than USDA’s estimate. (AgriCensus)

Vietnam: Feed demand is expected to increase as the country’s pig population recovers from ASF. (USDA)