Market Perspectives – November 4, 2021

Country News

Argentina: Moisture has been better than last year and has eased concerns at the same time corn sales by farmers have increased. Late crop corn sowing is expected to hit a record high in 2021/22. Upriver corn has dropped to a 7-cent discount under Chicago. (AgriCensus; World Grain)

Brazil: Moisture has been better for the corn crop being planted than originally feared. It is still dry in southern Brazil and La Nina could limit it even further, but the base of moisture received thus far provides some buffer. The bottom line is that crops in South America will be better than last year. IMEA has not changed its outlook for the new corn crop and expects 7.7 MMT to be used for ethanol. Analysts expect the fact that soybean planting has progressed at its second fastest pace ever to be a benefit to the safrinha corn crop in early 2022. (World Grain; AgriCensus)

China: A government think tank says that corn output in the nation’s largest maize producing province, Heilongjiang, will be 19 percent greater in 2021. (Reuters)

EU: The European Feed Manufacturers Association (FEFAC) says that feed output in 2021 will be 149.9 MMT, a 0.16 percent decline from 2020. The largest decline will be in pig feed, -1.3 percent, due to the AFS outbreak. By contrast, poultry and cattle feed production will be up slightly. Supply chain difficulties and higher procurement costs are hampering the industry and 2022 will present more challenges. The producer association AGPM is concerned that high fuel costs is delaying the harvest and could damage the quality of the corn crop. FranceAgriMer reports that 54 percent of the maize crop has been harvested, up 32 percent from a week earlier. However, that is down from the 87 percent harvested at this time last year. (Reuters)

Jordan: The government agency MIT purchased 60 KMT of barley from Australia for delivery during the second half of February but made no purchase on a tender for an additional 120 KMT of feed barley. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: For the third year in a row, South Africa will produce a bumper corn crop of more than 16 MMT based on planted area remaining at 2.7 million hectares. Commercial demand for corn will expand slightly to 11.8 MMT and exports will reach 3 MMT. (FAS GAIN)

South Korea: NOFI and KFA purchased 134 KMT of corn and have tendered for more to arrive in January.  FLC bought 65 KMT of corn from Cofco at $334.83/MT, and MFG acquired corn from Olam and Cargill at $334.49/MT. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The corn harvest is now half-way complete and with corn production predicted to be 39.1 MMT, overall grain exports are 18 percent higher this year. (World Grain)