Market Perspectives – November 15, 2018

Country News

Argentina: Approximately 36 percent of the corn area has been planted with progress slowed due to rains that may cause some earlier sowed land to be reworked. Corn planting is usually light in November to avoid maturation occurring during the heat of January. (Soybean and Corn Advisor)

Brazil: The November crop report from Conab contains a mid-range corn production estimate in 2018/19 of 90.4 MMT, which is unchanged from last month. The planting window for the safrinha crop doesn’t end until 22 February and there is some concern that the crop may be harmed by the El Nino. Meanwhile, corn exports have largely gone into hiatus awaiting the outcome of a 29 November meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and China. The delay comports with the fact that demand for soybeans is larger and thus is the focus of logistics. At 15.9 MT corn exports thus far this marketing year are down 27 percent. (AgriCensus; Soybean and Corn Advisor)

China: Feed for pig farming has switched to lower protein components and now there are reports that the use of blood meal has contaminated some feed with African Swine Fever. Consumption of corn for ethanol and starch will boost usage by 8 MMT. (AgriCensus)

EU: With nearly 600 KMT of corn imports this past week, deliveries of corn to Europe are 24 percent above last year’s level. Ukraine is the main supplier. However, French corn exports accelerated, hitting 640 KMT at week 20 in the campaign, which is 55 percent higher than the 412 KMT achieved at this point last year. Low river levels are raising concerns about the ability to use waterways for grain exports. (FranceAgriMer; Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

Saudi Arabia: Another one million metric tons of feed barley has been purchased with the average delivered price at just under $267/MT. Since the government refuses to buy from Canada, Russia is supplying much of the purchases. That plus competition from U.S. corn has caused Canadian barley prices to plateau. Imports of barley in 2018/19 will rise to 8.5 MMT. (FarmLead; USDA/FAS)

South Korea: Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) passed on tendering for corn until after the November USDA WASDE report. However, MFIG tendered for 65 KMT of corn that was set to close on 14 November. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Corn exports to China are expected to benefit from the Sino-American trade feud. (AgriCensus)