Market Perspectives – November 15, 2018

Chicago Board of Trade Market News

Outlook: December corn is down 6 cents (-1.6 percent) from last week as the market continues to adjust to USDA’s latest world carryout estimates. There are still questions as to the accuracy of USDA’s China ending stocks estimates and whether there will be downward revisions in the future. Regardless, that’s the number for now and the market will trade it until a new estimate is issued.

The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report will be published tomorrow due the U.S. Veterans Day holiday, but Monday’s Export Inspections showed 1.136 MMT of inspections last week. The inspections figure was down from the prior week, but YTD totals are up 86 percent.

The U.S. corn crop is 84 percent harvested, behind the 5-year average of 87 percent. The Midwest has largely been warm and dry this week, except for a few spots of snow including, oddly, Arkansas.

From a technical standpoint, December corn remains range bound with support at $3.65 and resistance at $3.75-$3.79. Cash prices are slowly moving higher, with the national average price 40 cents higher than the September low. With the crop made and ample U.S. supplies virtually assured, the focus now switches to demand. Exports, ethanol use, and feed consumption will drive U.S. corn market going forward. Seasonally, corn prices tend to slowly trend higher after the harvest is complete.