Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook
There were mild surprises in the USDA November Crop Production and WASDE reports. USDA lowered both corn and soybean yields with corn being lowered by 0.7 bu/acre to 183.1 bu/acre and soybean yield being lowered by 1.4 bu/acre to 51.7 bu/acre.
Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 1 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average a record high 183.1 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.7 bushel from the previous forecast but up 5.8 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from the previous year. Compared to the October report, corn yields of major producing states were decreased in IL (-4), IA (-1), and NE (-2). Yield was increased in IN (+7), and SD (+3) and held steady in MN. The very dry weather during harvest may well have contributed to the reduction in yields as harvested corn in many areas was 11-13% moisture rather than 15% moisture which is the standard.
Sorghum production was increased from 317.7 million bushels to 320.7 million bushels with the increases coming from yield increases in CO (+4), KS (+4), NE (+13), and SD (+8).
Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.46 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 7 percent from 2023. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 51.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast but up 1.1 bushels from 2023. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 86.3 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from 2023. For major producing states, yields were decreased from the October report for IL (-2), IA (-3), MN (-2), MO (-4), and SD (-2). Yields increased in IN (+2) and held steady in NE and OH. The very dry weather during harvest may well have contributed to the reduction in yields as harvested soybeans in many areas were well under 10% moisture rather than 13% moisture which is the standard.
On the demand side, USDA kept total corn use at 14.990 billion bushels. There were no changes in any of the demand categories; feed use (5.825 billion bu), Ethanol use (5.45 billion bu) and exports (2.325 billion bu). Ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year are projected at 1.938 billion bu, down 61 million bu from October, but up 178 million bu from the 2023/24 marketing year.
Sorghum demand increased by 15 million bu with all of the increase in feed use. Export demand was held steady compared to October at 220 million bu, although down 19 million bu from the prior year.
The barley balance sheet was unchanged from October. Imports are projected at 12 million bu and exports projected at 5 million bu. Overall supply of barley in the U.S. is down 21 million bu compared to last year.
With lower soybean production, exports were lowered by 25 million bu and domestic crush was lowered by 15 million bu, and ending stocks were lowered by 80 million bu to 470 million bu.