Market Perspectives – May 8, 2015

Country News

China: Falling global corn prices could incentivize an increase of corn imports into China as the prices of domestic corn remain high, reports Reuters. The disparity between international and domestic prices stands at $16/MT. China currently permits 7.2 MMT of annual corn imports at a 1 percent tariff, which is almost universally purchased by large state-owned concerns, which forces the private sector to buy their corn from more expensive domestic sources. China’s state corn reserves are currently holding a record 150 MMT, which is equivalent to eight months’ consumption.

Ukraine: Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko announced that Ukraine is unlikely to export more than 32 MMT of grain in 2014/15, which is down from an earlier forecast of 37 MMT, reports Reuters. For comparison, Ukraine exported 32.8 MMT in the 2013/14 season. The 2014 grain harvest was a record 63.8 MMT and as of April 30, had exported 29.3 MMT (2.6 MMT in April), which included 1.95 MMT of corn. Pavlenko indicated in his comments that high volumes of corn could be exported over the next couple of months.

Zimbabwe: The government is distributing grain from its stockpiles and has announced plans to import $700 million worth of grain for human and livestock consumption following a drought that has badly damaged this year’s crop, according to Bloomberg News. Zimbabwe consumes around 1.7 MMT of corn annually and will likely need to import 700,000 MT before the harvest in March 2016. Agriculture Minister Joseph Made announced that the government intends to work with private millers for grain purchases and is not immediately seeking food aid from the international community. The corn harvest for the entire region of southern Africa is estimated by the FAO to be 26 percent lower than it was in 2014.