Market Perspectives – May 30, 2019

Country News

Argentina: A strike against the government’s austerity measures forced the closure this week of key grain ports. The holdup occurs as corn prices hit parity with or dip below Chicago futures. Meanwhile, Agriculture Ministry cabinet chief Santiago del Solar expects corn production in 2019/20 to exceed last year’s record 56 MMT due to the current rising price. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Brazil: A Reuters survey of 11 analysts predicts the corn harvest in 2018/19 to reach 97.5 MMT, just 300 KMT below the record production two years ago. Corn selling is brisk due to rising Chicago futures at the same time the local currency remains weak, though some call it over-bought. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

China: Corn and pork imports spiked in April. Meanwhile, the first auction of 2019 sold 91 percent of the corn offered. (AgriCensus)

EU: Though recent rains have helped alleviate dryness, temperatures are still cool and led Strategie Grains to lower its estimate for this year’s EU barley crop by 700 KMT. FranceAgriMer lowered its corn quality estimate this week. In Germany, the winter barley crop (used for feed) is up 33 percent to 9.8 MMT, but the summer barley crop (used for malt/beer) is expected to be down 4 percent to 2.11 MMT. Separately, Euronext net-shorts shrunk due to a buyback. (FarmLead; AgriCensus)

Japan: Through its simultaneous buy and sell system, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries sought 200 KMT of barley and will repeat the tender on 5 June. (Reuters)

Russia: SovEcon says corn exports in 2019/20 will hit 3.9 MMT and barley exports will be 5.3 MMT, similar to estimates from the Agriculture Ministry. The Reuters crop tour reports that early conditions are favorable, and farmers are optimistic. (Reuters)

South Africa: The government’s Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the maize crop to be 10.9 MMT, a 13 percent decline from the 12.51 MMT produced last year. However, the stocks estimate slipped to 2.6 MMT. (Reuters)