Market Perspectives – May 17, 2018

Country News

Brazil: Antonio Galvan of the Aprosoja grain growers’ association says there will be a 15 percent drop in harvested second crop (safrinha) corn as a result of drought. Harvesting will start in about 40 days and he estimates Mato Grosso, which produces 30 percent of Brazil’s second crop, will produce 25 MMT of corn, versus 29 MMT last year. The Instituto Mato-Grossense De Economia Agropecuária (IMEA) is more optimistic and predicts a crop of 26.83 MMT. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Corn production will reach nearly 1 MMT, a third more than was produced last year. (AgriCensus; USDA)

Canada: Barley stocks fell but corn stocks rose in the first quarter of 2018 versus year-ago levels. Adequate moisture remains a concern for planting this spring in the western province. More malting barley will get planted in Canada, Australia and Argentina despite less demand growth in the U.S. as the craft beer market is expected to take off in China. (AgriCensus; FarmLead)

France: Corn planting is 74 percent complete, making it 12 days behind last year’s planting pace. Low prices have caused corn to fall out of favor and this year is expected to produce the smallest corn crop since 1993. With farmers instead planting barley and wheat, this may increase import requirements. (France AgriMer)

Saudi Arabia: The Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) bought 1.5 MMT of barley from various suppliers and possible origins at $228.61/MT, 8 percent less than the $249.23/MT it paid in a tender back in March. (AgriCensus; Zawya)

South Korea: The feed association and KOCOPIA have decided not to purchase corn offered in the latest tender because prices are still too high. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Exports of old crop corn are lagging 10 percent due to competition from U.S. corn and DDGS and a lack of buying interest from China. Offers for Handysize vessels for delivery in May and June are at $199/MT, down from $210/MT just two weeks ago.

China has been consuming its domestic stocks and, despite a stronger dollar, U.S. volumes no longer headed to China are instead flooding into Europe and the Middle East, Ukraine’s traditional markets. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy says that 4.2 MMT of barley and 15.2 MMT of corn have been exported. Ukraine exported 5.4 MMT of barley last year and 20.7 MMT of corn. Meanwhile, farmers have switched equipment over to planting corn and now have 91 percent of the targeted new crop area sown. (AgriCensus; World Grain)

Vietnam: The first direct shipment of U.S. corn (67 KMT) since 2016 arrived in Vietnam after its Plant Protection Department approved a plan for American exporters to fumigate shipments with phosphine to address a pest concern. Vietnam is the largest corn importer in Southeast Asia. (World Grain)