Market Perspectives – May 14, 2020

Country News

Algeria: Government grain buying agency ONAB tendered for 40 KMT of corn for July shipment. (AgriCensus)

Australia: The country’s barley crop, half of which goes to China, is now facing punitive duties in that country amounting to 73.6 percent and a subsidy margin of up to 6.9 percent. Beijing has also blocked beef imports from four Australian abattoirs. China assures that the measures have nothing to do with Canberra’s investigation of the origins of the coronavirus. Canadian and U.S. malting barley could benefit from duties on an Australian barley expected to be 3 percent larger than a year ago. (AgriCensus; World Grain; FarmLead)

Brazil: The advisory Safras and Mercado lowered their estimate for the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crop to 101.5 MMT, a 4.2 MMT change from their previous estimate. Conab raised its corn production projection to 102.3 MMT while Agroconsult says it is 99 MMT. (Reuters)

China: Rumors indicate the National Grain Trade Council will begin auctioning next week 56.6 MMT of government stockpiled corn at a rate of 3 MMT per week. The auction target price is estimated at RMB 1,750/MT, which is low considering the current procurement price is RMB 2,000/MT for Grade 2. China expects corn imports in 2020/21 to rise by 25 percent to 5 MMT due to attractive import prices and the Phase One deal.  It has just granted 2 MMT of corn import quota to state buyers. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

EU: The area planted to corn in France will be 11 percent greater as farmers make up for lost winter crops. (AgriCensus)

Kazakhstan: The barley crop estimate has been lowered to 3.9 MMT. It is typically exported to Iran and Uzbekistan but could now shift to China if Australian barley incurs punitive duties. (FarmLead)

Paraguay: The 2019/20 corn crop is likely to fall at least 25 percent even as corn exports have doubled over the past year to 3 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: The government grain buying agency TMO is looking to purchase 250 KMT of corn for May-June shipment. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: MFG and KFA purchased corn via a combination of private transactions and a public tender. (AgriCensus)